International Capital Movement: Trends and Prospects

1966
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-8-16-25

A. Bulatov (bulatov.moscow@mail.ru), 
MGIMO University, 76, Prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 117454, Russian Federation;
Y. Kvashnin (ykvashnin@gmail.com), 
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation;
S. Rebrey (sofiarebrey@gmail.com), 
MGIMO University, 76, Prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 117454, Russian Federation;
N. Seniuk (seniuk.ninel@gmail.com), 
MGIMO University, 76, Prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 117454, Russian Federation;
K. Tatulov (tatulov.k@mail.ru), 
MGIMO University, 76, Prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 117454, Russian Federation 

Abstract. The article researches the trends of international capital movement in general and in the leading economies in the current decade. Besides advanced economies, the article considers BRICS, CIS and EEU states as well as offshores. It is argued that while the capital flows (likewise international trade, labor migration and knowledge exchange) are forming the future of the world economy, the current stance and future of the leading world economies basically determine the volumes and distribution of the capital flows. This asym¬metrical interdependence of the dynamics of international capital flows and world economy is researched on the basis of available current examples. The forecast is made that in the coming years the growth of volumes of international capital flows is questionable. Anyway, the share of emerging economies will be increasing, especially at the expense of BRICS countries (particularly China). The article also forecasts that US role in international capital inflow would be positively impacted by US tax reform, on the one hand, and negatively touched by US political instability, on the other hand. It is noted that in spite of Brexit and the failure of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership project, the principal partners of the EU countries in the sphere of international capital flows remain the UK and USA. The developed Asian countries will retain their position of net capital exporters. As for CIS countries, foreign capital inflows will be shifting to such countries as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, while the share of Russia in FDI inflows will be decreasing. 

Keywords: international capital movement, direct investment, portfolio investment, financial derivatives, other investment, offshores 


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For citation:
Bulatov A., Kvashnin Y., Rebrey S., Seniuk N., Tatulov K. International Capital Movement: Trends and Prospects. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2018, vol. 62, no. 8, pp. 16-25. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-8-16-25



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