875I. Tsapenko (tsapenko@imemo.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation
Abstract. Sharp and unpredictable shifts in population movements, imperfection and incompleteness of international migration statistics, regular revisions by the UN Population Division of previous estimates of the international migrant stock complicate assessing the current state and forecasting future developments in this field. Nevertheless, there are obvious changes in geography, dynamics, composition and forms of modern migration occurring in the context of the polycentric and, at the same time, transnational and increasingly interconnected world entering the period of globalization reformatting, economic turbulence and uncertainty, the growth of socio-political conflict, the establishment of postmodern social values and attitudes. These shifts outline the contours of a new model emerging in the global migration space. The territorial mobility of people is growing in the whole, but this process is multi-speed. The non-migration mobility is increasing noticeably. However, modern flows of long-term migrants are weakening, and the growth in their number is slowing. This indicates a decrease in migration activity. The role of settlement is likely to decline in the new migration paradigm. Migration is becoming increasingly fluid and incomplete. With the spread of temporary and circular movements occurring generally in developed regions, in the EU in particular, frontier and hybrid patterns of movements arise. They combine elements of short-term and long-term migration and those of non-migration mobility. The diversity of migrants and receiving population is growing. The development of these processes requires an improvement of migration statistics, as well as reforming the integration policies. A new geography of migration is being construed. It is characterized by the shift of human flows to the global South and their regionalization on the basis of integration platforms. The regionalization of movements in the South requires working-out and implementation of immigration and integration policies by developing states and the development of sub-global mechanisms for regulating human flows as well. Moreover, the architecture design of the global population movements’ governance should be adjusted to the emerging migration model.
Keywords: migration of population, territorial mobility, settlement, circulation of human flows, long-term and short-term migrants, globalization, regionalization, diversity of foreign borne population, fluidity of human flows, integration of migrants
REFERENCES
1. King R. Towards a New Map of European Migration. International Journal of Population Geography, 2002, no. 8(2), pp. 89-106.
2. Engbersen G., Snel E., Boom J. “A Van Full of Poles”: Liquid Migration from Central and Eastern Europe. A Continent Moving West? EU Enlargement and Labour Migration from Central and Eastern Europe. Black R., Engbersen G., Okólski M., Panţîru C., eds. Amsterdam, Amsterdam University Press, 2010, ðð. 115-140.
3. World Migration Report 2018. Geneva, IOM, 2017. 347 p.
4. Glossary on Migration. International Migration Law, 2011, no. 25. 114 ð.
5. Handbook on Measuring International Migration through Population Censuses. UN, DESA, SD, 2017. 145 p. Available at: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/48th-session/documents/BG-4a-Migration-Handbook-E.pdf (accessed 17.03.2018).
6. Cohen J. and Sirkeci I. Cultures of Migration. The Global Nature of Contemporary Mobility. Austin, University of Texas Press, 2011. 179 p.
7. Castles S., Haas H., Miller M. The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World. Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan, 2014. 420 p.
8. World Migration Report 2015. Geneva, IOM, 2015. 202 p.
9. Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2017 Revision. UN database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2017.
10. Czaika M., Haas H. The Globalization of Migration: Has the World Become More Migratory? International Migration Review, 2014, no. 2, ðð. 283-323.
11. King R. Theories and Typologies of Migration: An Overview and a Primer. Willy Brandt Series of Working Papers in International Migration and Ethnic Relations, 2012, no. 3. 43 ð. Available at: https://www.mah.se/upload/Forskningscentrum/MIM/WB/WB%203.12.pdf (accessed 01.04.2018).
12. Abel G. Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender Between 1960 and 2015. Vienna Institute of Demography Working papers, 2016, no. 2. 43 ð. Available at: https://www.oeaw.ac.at/fileadmin/subsites/Institute/VID/PDF/Publications/Working_Papers/WP2016_02.pdf (accessed 01.04.2018).
13. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. UN, DESA, PD, 2017. Available at: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp (accessed 02.04.2018).
14. The World Counted 258 million International Migrants in 2017. Population Facts, 2017, no. 5, pð. 1-4.
15. Parkes R. Global Migration: Getting the Trends Right. Security Monthly Stats, 2017, no. 2, pp. 1-3.
16. Connor Ð. International Migration: Key Findings from the U.S., Europe and the World. December 15, 2016. Available at: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/12/15/international-migration-key-findings-from-the-u-s-europe-and-the-world (accessed 15.03.2018).
17. People on the Move: Global Migration’s Impact and Opportunity. McKinsey Global Institute, 2016. 124 ð. Available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/global-migrations-impact-and-opportunity (accessed 12.03.2018).
18. International Migration Report 2017. UN, 2017 (ST/ESA/SER.A/403). 30 ð.
19. Globalistics Interdisciplinary Encyclopedic Dictionary. Moscow, ITs ELIMA, 2006. 1160 p. (In Russ.)
20. Connecting with Emigrants: A Global Profile of Diasporas 2015. Paris, OECD, 2015. 456 ð.
21. International Migration Report 2017: Highlights. UN, 2017 (ST/ESA/SER.A/404). 31 p.
22. Dynkin A.A., ed. Mir 2035. Global’nyi prognoz [World in 2035. Global Forecast]. Moscow, Magistr, 2017. 352 p.
23. Tsapenko I.P. Regionalizatsiya migratsionnykh protsessov [Regionalization of Migration]. Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law, 2017, no. 10(4), pp. 70-85.
24. Vertovec S. Super-diversity and Its Implications. Ethnic and Racial Studies, 2007, no. 30(6), ðð. 1024-1054.
25. Migration in an Interconnected World: New Directions for Action. Global Commission on International Migration, 2005. 98 p. Available at: https://www.iom.int/jahia/webdav/site/myjahiasite/shared/shared/mainsite/policy_and_research/gcim/GCIM_Report_Complete.pdf (accessed 01.04.2018).
26. International Migration Outlook 2017. Paris, OECD, 2017. 361 p.
27. The World Bank Data. International Tourism, Number of Arrivals. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/st.int.arvl (accessed 01.04.2018).
28. 20 êðóïíåéøèõ àýðîïîðòîâ ìèðà â 2017-ì ãîäó. 18 äåêàáðÿ 2017. [The 20 Largest Airports in the World in 2017. 18 December 2017 (In Russ.)] Available at: https://planet-guide.com/20-largest-airports-in-the-world-2017-year (accessed 01.04.2018).
29. A Profile of Immigrant Populations in the 21st Century: Data from OECD Countries. Paris, OECD, 2008. 198 ð.
30. Indicators of Immigrant Integration 2015: Settling In. Paris, OECD, 2015. 344 ð.
31. Engbersen G., Snel E. Liquid Migration: Dynamic and Fluid Patterns of Post-accession Migration Flows. Mobility in Transition. Migration Patterns after EU Enlargement. Glorius B., Grabowska-Lusinska I., Kuvik A., eds. Amsterdam, Amsterdam University Press, 2013, ðp. 21-40.
32. Grabowska-Lusinska I. Anatomy of Post-accession Migration: How to Measure ‘Liquidity’ and Other Patterns of Post-accession Migration Flows. Mobility in Transition. Migration Patterns after EU Enlargement. Glorius B., Grabowska-Lusinska I., Kuvik A., eds. Amsterdam, Amsterdam University Press, 2013, ðp. 41-64.
33. Tsapenko I.P., Monusova G.A. Integratsionnyi potentsial etnokul’turnogo raznoobraziya v evropeiskikh sotsiumakh [Integration Capacity of Ethno-Cultural Diversity in European Societies]. Polis. Political Studies, 2017, no. 4, pp. 90-105. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2017.04.07
Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX
No comments