685O. Marchenko (marchenko@isem.irk.ru), Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), 130, Lermontov Str., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation;
S. Podkoval’nikov (spodkovalnikov@isem.irk.ru),
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), 130, Lermontov Str., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation;
V. Savel’yev (info@isem.irk.ru),
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), 130, Lermontov Str., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation;
S. Solomin (solomin@isem.irk.ru),
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), 130, Lermontov Str., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation;
L. Chudinova (chudinova@isem.irk.ru)
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), 130, Lermontov Str., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation
Acknowledgements. The article was prepared within the framework of the research project III. 17.6.2 Program of fundamental research of SB RAS, no. AAAA-A17-117030310447-3.
Abstract. The paper analyses current state and prospects of interstate power integration of Russia with the neighboring Eurasian countries. The integration is based on the creation and operation of interstate electric ties and joint construction of power facilities. The authors assess national programs of energy development in Russia and neighboring countries, forecasts of international organizations. The modeling makes it possible to determine the most economically sound options for the prospective configuration of interstate electric ties, considering technical, economic, geopolitical and environmental constraints. A retrospective analysis was made with a focus on the economic growth rates, an increase in electricity consumption due to the economic growth, a change in the energy – GDP ratio, an increase in the population number and trends in per capita electricity consumption of developing countries approaching the level of developed countries. Consideration is given to all countries bordering Russia. They are arranged in 5 groups: 1) Scandinavia and Baltic states; 2) Eastern Europe; 3) the Caucasus and Asia Minor; 4) Central and South Asia; 5) East Asia. It is shown that the most important factors determining the need and capability of electric power integration are the economic growth rates, the increase in electricity consumption and the extent to which the countries are provided with their own natural resources. In this context, the conclusion is made that power export to the countries of East Asia, particularly Japan and Republic of Korea, will be the most effective. Russia, with its favorable geographical position, large territory, extended latitudinal electric network infrastructure and great potential of natural energy resources, can play an essential role in building the Eurasian supergrid. In this case, Russia (as well as other countries participating in the electric power integration) may gain numerous positive system benefits: a) reduced costs of commissioning new capacities; b) improved operating conditions of power facilities (on a daily and annual basis); c) increased reliability of the integrated power system; d) more renewable generation in the energy balances of different countries; and e) the countries with substantial energy resources, in particular Russia, will get considerable revenues from exports. Moreover, the energy integration will facilitate closer political relations among the involved countries and normalization of the international situation at whole.
Keywords: electric power integration, forecast, power consumption, systemic benefits, Russia, Eurasia
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