501L. Isaev (isleonid@yandex.ru),
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation;
Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, 30/1, Spiridonovka Str., Moscow, 123001, Russian Federation. A. Korotaev (akorotayev@gmail.com),
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation;
Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, 30/1, Spiridonovka Str., Moscow, 123001, Russian Federation;
A. Mardasov (anton.mardasoff@yandex.ru),
Institute for Innovative Development, 8/5, Timura Frunze Str., Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation
Acknowledgments. The article has been supported by a grant of the Russian Science Foundation. Project ¹ 14-18-03615 “Russia’s Policy in the Middle East: Possibilities and Limits of the Cooperation with Regional Countries”.
Abstract. The article offers a systematic analysis of negotiation processes aimed at the settlement of the Syrian conflict. Special attention is paid to the negotiations in Geneva and Astana. Despite the fact that Geneva remains the main platform for the intra-Syrian dialogue, the large number of participants involved in the conflict, the stalemate of the situation, and the very broad agenda predetermined a tendency towards regionalization and particularization of the Syrian negotiation process. As a result, the process acquired a three-level format. The leading role in it is still played by the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) and the Geneva negotiations initiated by it, which approve all key political decisions on the Syrian conflict. The Astana talks sponsored by Russia, Turkey and Iran constitute an intermediate negotiating platform, whose main goal is to optimize the Geneva peace process, eliminating the military agenda from it. In addition, Astana serves to legitimize decisions adopted at the talks in Amman and Cairo with a more local status, which are, in turn, destined to complement Astana negotiations and bring a maximum number of parties to the table, required for the intra-Syrian dialogue.
Keywords: Syria, Middle East, Russia, Geneva, Astana, negotiation process, coalitions, Bashar al-Assad, The National Coordination Body for Democratic Change, The National Coalition for Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces
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