685G. Vainshtein (gvoitek@yandex.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
The article is devoted to the assessment of the current state of the European populism. Basing on the outcomes of the European electoral cycle in 2017, as well as sociological polls data, the author suggests that, contrary to the opinion of some Western analysts concerning “decline of the populist wave”, there is stabilization of the populism’s impact on the political life of the continent. The article emphasizes that while in the Western Europe there is a certain stagnation of the “populist offensive” on the political power system, in Eastern and Central Europe there is a completely different situation – stabilization of positions in this system that have already been won by populism. Along with a certain consolidation of electoral niche previously gained by populism in some West European countries one can watch enhancing of populist impact on the European political discourse and the real policy of a number of mainstream parties. The article highlights some evolution trends of populist parties themselves. These include the intensification of contradictions between the desire of populists to win support of radicalized voters, on the one hand, and their striving to win positions in the political power system that requires some mitigation of populists’ anti-systemic radicalism, on the other. At the same time, the article provides abundant evidence of recent shifts in the European public mind, which contribute to the enlargement of the electoral base of populism by creating a new socio-psychological situation in European societies, more favorable for the populist forces’ activities. The author argues that although the political consequences of these trends are difficult to predict, essential aspects of the current political transformations generated by populism are further fragmentation of a political landscape and corresponding increase of uncertainties in the political life of Europe.
REFERENCES
1. Raines Th., Goodwin M., Cutts D. 2017. The Future of Europe: Comparing Public and Elite Attitudes. Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/research/2017-06-20-future-europe-attitudes-rainesgoodwin-cutts-final.pdf (accessed 14.08.2017).
2. Walsh M. Brexit Leader Nigel Farage: 2016 was Start of Global Populist Revolution. 24.02.2017. Available at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/brexit-leader-nigel-farage-2016-was-start-of-global-populist-revolution-190846962.html (accessed 10.09.2017).
3. Oliphant V. Geert Wilders Says NOTHING will Stop Populist Revolution Threatening EU – even if He LOSES. 09.02.2017. Available at: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/765151/Geert-Wilders-populist-revolution-threatening-European-Union (accessed 10.09.2017).
4. Gutteridge N. ‘We’ve had the Earthquake – Now for the TSUNAMI’ Experts Predict Worst yet to Come for EU. 07.12.2016. Available at: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/740562 (accessed 22.09.2017).
5. Eder Fl. Tajani: Rise of Populism Ended in Paris (and Amsterdam and…). 05.09.2017. Available at: http://www.politico.eu/article/tajani-rise-of-populism-ended-in-paris-and-amsterdam-and/ (accessed 10.10.2017).
6. Vainshtein G. Sovremennyi populizm kak ob”ekt politologicheskogo analiza [Modern Populism as a Subject of Political Science]. Polis. Political Studies, 2017, no. 4, pp. 69-89.
7. Opinion Polling for the Next United Kingdom General Election. 2018. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018 (accessed 16.01.2018).
8. Greece Marc Poll. January 2018. Available at: http://www.electograph.com/2018/01/greece-marc-poll-january-2018.html (accessed 16.01.2018).
9. Finland Taloustutkimus Poll. December 2017. Available at: http://www.electograph.com/2017/12/finland-taloustutkimuspoll-december.html (accessed 16.01.2018).
10. Sondaggio EMG Acqua (15 Gennaio 2018). Available at: https://scenaripolitici.com/sondaggi/altri-sondaggi/emg (accessed 16.01.2018).
11. Judy Asks: Is Populism on the Run? 26.04.2017. Available at: http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/68775 (accessed 15.06.2017).
12. Agh A. Increasing Europopulism as a Megatrend in East-Central Europe. Baltic Journal of Political Science, 2016, no. 5, pp. 21-39.
13. Standard Eurobarometer 87. Public Opinion in the European Union. First results. S.l., European Commission, Spring 2017. 43 p.
14. Bargăoanu A. et al. Introduction: United by or Against Euroscepticism? United by or Against Euroscepticism. Ed. by Radu L. et al. Cambridge, Scholars Publishing, 2015, pp. 1-16. Available at: http://www.cambridgescholars.com/download/sample/62882 (accessed 23.10.2017).
15. Hilmer R. What Hold Europe Together? The EU in the Wake of Brexit. A Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung project 2015–2017. 28 p. Available at: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/ipa/13506.pdf (accessed 12.10.2017).
16. Opinion Polling for the Austrian Legislative Election, 2017. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Austrian_legislative_election,_2017 (accessed 10.10.2017).
17. Barnett A. Only Winner of Britain’s Election will be Populism. 22.05.2017. Available at: http://www.politico.eu/article/only-winner-of-british-general-election-2017-is-populism-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn/ (accessed 10.10.2017).
18. Ricolfi L. Will 2017 be the Year of Populism? 04.01.2017. Available at: http://www.italy24.ilsole24ore.com/art/politics/2017-01-03/will-2017-be-the-year-of-populism-130519.php?uuid=ADq4JLPC (accessed 13.10.2017).
19. Kartsev Dm. Bol’she, chem partiya. Chto pokazali vybory v Gollandii [More than a Party. What Dutch Election Showed]. 17.03.2017. Available at: http://carnegie.ru/commentary/68321 (accessed 13.10.2017).
20. Grabbe H. Why Europe isn’t Worried by Austria’s Right Tilt (but should be). 18.10.2017. Available at: http://www.politico.eu/article/sebastian-kurz-austria-election-why-europe-isnt-worried-about-a-right-turn/ (accessed 20.10.2017).
21. Fisher M., Taub A. Western Populism may be Entering on Awkward Adolescence. The New York Times, 25.04.2017. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/world/europe/populism-far-from-turned-back-may-be-just-gettingstarted.html (accessed 10.10.2017).
22. Burtsov P. True Finns’ Dilemma: Power or Populism? 03.21.2017. Available at http://www.politico.eu/article/timo-soinijussi-halla-aho-true-finns-dilemma-power-or-populism/ (accessed 15.05.2017).
23. Humphries W. Ukip Loser Anne Marie Waters will Start Far-right Party. 12.10.2017. Available at: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ukip-loser-anne-marie-waters-will-start-far-right-party-fsgps673r (accessed 14.10.2017).
24. Global Advisor: Power to the People? Part 2. Ipsos, January 2017. Available at: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2017-01/Power_to_the_people_survey-01-2017.pdf (accessed 20.05.2017).
25. Special Eurobarometer 451. Future of Europe, October 2016. Available at: http://www.government.se/49d94d/contentassets/06491c3b38a441f38b572a9968c01075/ebs_451_en.pdf (accessed 15.10.2017).
26. De Vries C., Hoffmann I. Fear not Values. Public Opinion and the Populist Vote in Europe. Bertelsmann Stiftung, November 2016. Available at: https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/user_upload/EZ_eupinions_Fear_Study_2016_ENG.pdf (accessed 20.02.2017).
27. Vehrkamp R., Wratil Chr. A Populist Moment? Populist Attitudes of Voters and Non-Voters before the German Federal Election 2017. Bertelsmann Stiftung, June 2017. Available at: http://www.astrid-online.it/static/upload/zd_s/zd_studie_populismus_en.pdf (accessed 15.10.2017).
28. Mudde C. The Populist Radical Right: A Pathological Normalcy. West European Politics, 2010, vol. 33, no. 6, pp. 1167-1186.
Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX
No comments