Keeping the Balance of Power in South Caucasus

590
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-3-108-118

K. Kurylev (kurylev_kp@rudn.university.ru),
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6, Miklukho-Maklaya Str., Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation.;
N. Galoyan (kurylev_kp@rudn.university.ru),
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6, Miklukho-Maklaya Str., Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation;
D. Stanis (kurylev_kp@rudn.university.ru),
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6, Miklukho-Maklaya Str., Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation;
A. Bredikhin (bredikhin90@yandex.ru),

Abstract. The issue of searching for an effective regional balance of power in the South Caucasus through the prism of Russia’s military and political interaction with Armenia and Azerbaijan is examined. The experience of the USA carrying out similar policy in relation to these states is demonstrated. Based on the quantitative analysis of military-political relations between Moscow, Yerevan and Baku, the scale and forms of the cooperation are estimated. Positive and negative consequences of the official Moscow’s “balancing” policy are reviewed. Difficulties that the Russian side has to face when implementing such a regional scenario of behavior are shown. The article says that for Russia, which represents itself as a backbone structural element in the CIS, the key to realizing its national interests is creation of a “good-neighbor belt” and counteraction to formation of the anti-Russian buffer zone in the post-Soviet space. This determines the foreign policy course of Moscow in the CIS region, where the Russian leadership strives to maintain a balance in the development of military cooperation with such regional rivals in the South Caucasus subregion as Armenia and Azerbaijan. The authors come to a conclusion that Russia is balancing between two countries – Armenia and Azerbaijan – in order to maintain its influence in the region and the balance of power between the sides. It is noted that Moscow tries to demonstrate the adherence to the principle of a dynamic balance of power maintenance in the South Caucasus. Unfortunately, Russia is not coherent in its political line in contrast to the USA. According to the authors, it is difficult for Russia to maintain the military and political parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan only because of the fact that it is a major weapons supplier for these two countries. So, any destabilization between Yerevan and Baku is not good for Moscow, and it can lead to serious problems regarding its reputation and regional interests. However, despite the fact that Russia has a regional and global status, an alternative political line will not be reconsidered in the near future. Moscow acts according to its age-old experience in the regional policy. 

Keywords: Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the South Caucasus, military-political cooperation, arms traffic, balance of power 


REFERENCES

1. Remarks and Answers by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Questions from Russian Media Following the CSTO and CIS Foreign Ministers Meeting in Astana, April 6, 2012 (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/161838/pop_up?_101_INSTANCE_cKNonkJE02Bw_viewMode=print&_101_INSTANCE_cKNonkJE02Bw_qrIndex=0 (accessed 20.03.2017).

2. The Agreement Between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Russian Military Base on the Territory of the Republic of Armenia of March 16, 1995 (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page-2/47983?_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_advancedSearch=false&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_keywords=16+марта+1995+года+Армения&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_fromPage=search&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_andOperator=1 (accessed 20.03.2017).

3. Minutes no. 5 Between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia 20 August 2010 Amending the Agreement Between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Russian Military Base on the Territory of the Republic of Armenia from March 16, 1995 (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page‑1/45120?_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_advancedSearch=false&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_keywords=16+марта+1995+года+Армения&_storagevieer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_fromPage=search&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_andOperator=1 (accessed 20.03.2017).

4. Declaration on Friendship and Strategic Partnership Between Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation on July 3, 2008 (In Russ.) Available at: http://kremlin.ru/supplement/250 (accessed 20.03.2017).

5. Treaty of Adrianople – Charges Against Viscount Palmerston. Available at: http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1848/mar/01/treaty-of-adrianople-charges-against (accessed 20.03.2017).

6. Degterev D.A. Teoretiko-igrovoi analiz mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii [Game-Theoretic Analysis of International Relations]. Moscow, Aspekt-Press, 2017. 352 р.

7. Foreign Military Financing Account Summary. Available at: https://2009-2017.state.gov/t/pm/ppa/sat/c14560.htm (accessed 20.03.2017).

8. Shapiro Andrew J. (Remarks). Ensuring Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, November 4, 2011. Available at: https://2009-2017.state.gov/t/pm/rls/rm/176684.htm (accessed 20.03.2017).

9. Arena Ph., Pechenkina A. External Subsidies and Lasting Peace. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2016, vol. 60, no. 7, pp. 1278-1311. ISSN0022-0027. Available at: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/14685/ (accessed 20.11.2017).

10. Degterev D.A., Stepkin E.A. Amerikanskaya pomoshch’ Izrailyu: istoki, struktura, dinamika [US Aid to Israel: the Origins, Structure, Dynamics]. Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta, 2013, no. 3 (30), pp. 92-99.

11. SIPRI. Top List TIV Tables. Available at: http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/toplist.php (accessed 20.03.2017).

12. SIPRI. Importer/Exporter TIV Tables. Available at: http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php (accessed 20.03.2017).

13. The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe –TCAFE (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.osce.org/ru/library/14091?download=true (accessed 20.03.2017).

14. UNROCA Original Report. Russian Federation 2013. Major Conventional Arms (Category I-VII) – Exports. Available at: https://www.unroca.org/russian-federation/report/2013/ (accessed 20.03.2017).

15. UNROCA. Azerbaijan. Imports B by Trading Partners. Available at: https://www.unroca.org/ (accessed 20.03.2017).

16. Армии Азербайджана и Армении: бюджет, численность, вооружения [The Army of Azerbaijan and Armenia: the Budget, the Size, Armament (In Russ.)] Available at: http://www.bbc.com/russian/international/2016/04/160404_karabakh_armies (accessed 20.03.2017).

17. Aleksandrov M.V. Voenno-tekhnicheskoe sotrudnichestvo Rossii i Armenii nabiraet oboroty [Military-Technical Cooperation between Russia and Armenia Grows] Available at: http://eurasian-defence.ru/?q=node/29345 (accessed 20.03.2017).

18. Markedonov S.M. Uroki Armenii dlya Rossii [Armenian Lessons for Russia] Available at: http://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/uroki-armenii-dlya-rossii/ (accessed 20.03.2017).

19. The Agreement Between Russia and Armenia on the Development of Military-Technical Cooperation of June 25, 2013 (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page-36/44363 (accessed 20.03.2017).

20. Mikhailov V. Armeniya – Rossiya – Azerbaidzhan: slozhnyi vopros s oruzheinoi nachinkoi [Armenia – Russia – Azerbaijan: a Complex Issue with Weapons Filling] Available at: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2016/08/13/armeniya-rossiya-azerbaydzhan-slozhnyy-vopros-s-oruzheynoy-nachinkoy (accessed 20.03.2017).

21. Minasyan S. Armeniya i Rossiya: pragmatika i stereotypy [Armenia and Russia: New Rules of the Game]. Russia in Global Affairs, 07.12.2015. Available at: http://globalaffairs.ru/global-processes/Armeniya-i-Rossiya-pragmatika-i-stereotipy-17864 (accessed 27.11.2017).

22. Mgdesyan A. Rossiya – Armeniya – Azerbaidzhan: oruzheinyi balans v usloviyakh politicheskogo disbalansa [Russia – Armenia – Azerbaijan: Arms Balance in the Conditions of Political Imbalance] Available at: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/1825431.html (accessed 20.03.2017). 


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Kurylev K., Galoyan N., Stanis D., Bredikhin A. Keeping the Balance of Power in South Caucasus. World Eсonomy and International Relations, 2018, vol. 62, No 3, pp. 108-118. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-3-108-118



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Current Issue
2023, vol. 67, No. 2
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Critical Materials’ Supply Chains and US National Security 
  • Civilizational Challenges to Russia’s Sustainable Development  
  • Latin America: in Search of Own Way 
  • On Certain Research Approaches to the World Information and Communication Order 
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.