After The Caliphate: What Is the Future of ISIS?

2153
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-12-55-64

A. Yashlavskii (dosier@mail.ru), 
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation

Abstract. A loss of the territories which were under control of the terrorist group “Islamic State” (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq has significantly weakened the extremists’ facilities not only on the battlefields in these countries. The ISIS propaganda machine is undermined, too. However, it does not mean a complete victory over the “Islamic State”. The group still demonstrates a capability to adapt to new conditions, proceeds with the use of new tactics (a sabotage and guerrilla activity, terrorist attacks, etc.). The IS transformation from a “quasi-state” towards a global terrorist organization without a territorial bond designates considerable increase of this group’s peril on a regional and global level. The continuing instability in the conflict zone raises serious concerns referring to a capability of the ISIS revitalization and even some kind of revenge (including a takeover of territories). There is also a possibility of IS militants’ relocation to different regions of the world both in conflict areas (Afghanistan, Yemen, Lybia, etc.) and other countries (not excepting European countries and Russia). In this context, there is a real danger of foreign Jihadi fighters’ returning to their home countries for sabotage and terrorist activities, as well as for creation of “autonomous Jihad” sleeper cells. The ISIS will continue to inspire its present-day followers and recruit new ones (especially among young people) in different countries of the world. It makes coordination of international counter-terrorist efforts and use of “smart force” against the IS necessary. 

Keywords: extremism, Islamism, Salafi Jihadism, Islamic State, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Boko Haram, Middle East, terrorism, ISIS, ISIL, IS, Caliphate 


REFERENCES

1. Winter Ch. Is Islamic State losing control of its ‘virtual caliphate’? Available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41845285 (accessed 17.01.2018).

2. Clarke C.P. How ISIS is Transforming: Why Predictions of its Demise are Premature. Foreign Affairs, 09.25.2017. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2017-09-25/how-isis-transforming (accessed 16.02.2018).

3. Dempsey M.P. How ISIS’ Strategy is Evolving: What the U.S. Can Do to Counter the Group’s Shifting Tactics. Foreign Affair, 18.01.2018. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2018-01-18/how-isis-strategy-evolving (accessed 16.02.2018).

4. Levitt M. Shutting the Door to the Islamic State. Available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/closing-the-door-against-isis (accessed 16/01/2018).

5. United Nations Security Council. Twenty-first report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities. Available at: http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2018/14 (accessed 02.03.2018).

6. Jones S.G. Islamic State 2.0. Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/08/islamic-state-20.html (accessed 16.02.2018)

7. Dubin R. Coalition Analysis Warns of Potential Islamic State Resurgence: The militant group is on the run, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be back. Foreign Policy, 10.01.2018. Available at: foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/10/coalition-analysis-warns-of-potential-islamic-state-resurgence-iraq-isis-isil-terrorism-military/ (accessed 16.02.2018).

8. Bahney B., Johnston P.B. ISIS Could Rise Again. Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/12/isis-could-rise-again.html (ccessed 16.02.2018).

9. Zelin A.Y. Interpreting the Fall of Islamic State Governance. Available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/interpreting-the-fall-of-islamic-state-governance (accessed 16.01.2018)

10. Hashim A.S. The Caliphate at War: Operational Realities and Innovations of the Islamic State. New York, Oxford University Press, 2018. 392 p.

11. Rolling Back the Islamic State. Jones S.G., Dobbins J., Byman D. et al, eds. Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, 2017. 296 p.

12. McNally L., Amiral A. The Islamic State in Afghanistan: Examining its Threat to Stability. Middle East Institute. May 2016. Available at: https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/publications/PF12_McNallyAmiral_ISISAfghan_web.pdf (accessed 01.03.2018).

13. Hassan H. Its dreams of a caliphate are gone. Now ISIS has a deadly new strategy. The Guardian, 31.12.2017. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/31/isis-dreams-of-caliphate-gone-now-deadly-new-strategy (accessed 16.02.2018).

14. Nance M. Defeating ISIS: Who They Are, How They Fight, What They Believe. New York, Skyhorse Publishing, 2016. 544 p.

15. The World Almanac of Islamism 2017. Lanham, Md., Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2017. 1158 p.

16. Pack J., Smith R., Mezran K. The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya. Available at: http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/The_Origins_and_Evolution_of_ISIS_in_Libya_web_0705.pdf (accessed 27.02.2018).

17. Ward A. Why the Fall of the “Caliphat”’ in Syria” Will Not Ease Western Security Concerns. Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/11/why-the-fall-of-the-caliphate-in-syria-will-not-ease.html (ccessed 16.02.2018)

18. Ward A. Why Africa Could Provide an “ISIS Renaissance”? Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/11/why-africa-could-provide-an-isis-renaissance.html (accessed 28.02.2018).

19. Wirtschafter J., Gadiaga K. J. Africa Becomes the New Battleground for ISIS and Al-Qaeda as They Lose Ground in Mideast. USA Today, 25.10.2017. Available at: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/10/25/africa-becomes-new-battleground-isis-and-al-qaeda-they-lose-ground-mideast/796148001/ (accessed 16.02.2018).

20. Johnston P.B., Clarke C.P. Is the Philippines the Next Caliphate? ISIS is Looking to Regroup, and is Setting Its Sights Eastward. Foreign Policy, 27.11.2017. Available at: http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/11/27/is-the-philippines-the-next-caliphate/ (accessed 16.02.2018).

21. Cafarella J., Zhou J. ISIS’s Expanding Campaign in Europe. War. Available at: http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISIS%20in%20Europe%20Update%20September-2017.pdf (accessed 27.02.2018).

22. De Kerchove G. Preparing to Counter ISIS2.0: European CT Efforts Since Charlie Hebdo. Available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/preparing-to-counter-isis-2.0-european-ct-efforts-since-charlie-hebdo (accessed 16.01.2018). 


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Yashlavskii A. After The Caliphate: What Is the Future of ISIS?. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2018, vol. 62, no. 12, pp. 55-64. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-12-55-64



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 5
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Are There Any Ways to Break Through the Korean Nuclear Impasse?
  • Contemporary U.S. Taiwan Policy: Balancing on the Edge
  • The Gulf Monarchies’ Vision of the Global Order Transformations and the Russian Place in It
  • At Post-Soviet Space
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.