Creating Jobs under Trumps Policy: Priorities, Realities and Risks

737
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-11-77-86

L. Lebedeva (Liudran@mail.ru),
Institute for US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISCRAN), 2/3, Khlebny Per., Moscow, 123995, Russian Federation 

Abstract. The promises of D. Trump to return jobs to the American workers put the problems of employment in the focus of his economic policy. After the Trump’s first year in White house the job market feels nice with employment indicators growing and unemployment going down. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (2017) makes it more attractive to do business both for the American and foreign firms in the United States; and benefits those American companies that do their business at home. There is little doubt that lowering taxes, limiting regulation can reduce employer’s costs, and stronger economic growth would increase employment opportunities. However, this process cannot stop long run trends of globalization technological, demographic influence on the labor force participation, jobs polarization. The US economy has long been moving away from mining and manufacturing industries towards service sectors with less median wage and lower access to employer’s benefits, to medical, pension and other programs. The paper focuses on job polarization with rising inequality between different groups of employees. The structure of employment in the US had sharply polarized over the past two decades by qualification, education; with expanding job opportunities, both for high-skill and low-skill occupations and decreasing opportunities for middle-skill workers. Meanwhile the tax cuts and regulation cuts are coming hand in hand with budget cuts for supporting education and training which could weaken the possibilities of low income persons to gain education and skills that the labor market values. So far, current administration’s policy may deliver impulse for more jobs, coming with economic growth, but eventually the social bad political polarization of America may become deeper after Trump’s presidency than before. 

Keywords: US, employment, workplaces, inequality, globalization 


REFERENCES

1. President Donald J. Trump’s State of the Union Address. Washington, White House, January 30, 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-state-union-address (accessed 02.02.2018).

2. Kirichenko E.V. Nalogovaya reforma D. Trampa i vozrozgdenie zakona Glassa-Stigala: naskol’ko eto real’no? [D. Trump’s Tax Reform and Glass-Steagall Act Renewal: How Real It Is?] Available at: https://www.imemo.ru/index.php?page_id=502&id=3199&p=5 (accessed 12.05.2017).

3. Employment Outlook. OECD, 2017, 220 p. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/employment/oecd-employment-outlook-19991266.htm (accessed 12.01.2018).

4. The Employment Situation. Washington, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2018. Available at: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf (accessed 16.02.2018).

5. Most U. S. Workers Unafraid of Losing Their Jobs to Robots. Gallup, February 8, 2017. Available at: http://news.gallup.com/poll/226841/workers-unafraid-losing-jobs-robots.aspx?g_source=Economy&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles (accessed 12.02.2018).

6. Speech of the President of Russia V. V. Putin at the Council for Science and Education (In Russ.) Available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56827 (accessed 08.02.2018).

7. Autor D., Levy F., Murnane R. J. The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. The Quarterly Economic Journal, 2003, no. 4, pp. 1279-1333.

8. Goos M., Manning A., Solomons A. Explaining Job Polarization. American Economic Review, 2014, vol. 104, no. 8, pp. 2509-2526.

9. Stiglitz J. The Price of Inequality. W. W. Norton and Company, New York, London, 2012. 560 p.

10. Acemoglu D., Restrepo P. Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. NBER Working Paper, no. 23285, March 2017. 91 p.

11. Freund C., McDaniel C., Kolb M. Job Opportunities Have Declined for Less-educated Men, but Expanded for Less-educated Women. Washington, PIIE, August 1, 2017. Available at: https://piie.com/research/piie-charts/job-opportunities-have-declined-less-educated-men-expanded-less-educated-women (accessed 02.10.2017).

12. Freund C., McDaniel C. The US Needs to Invest in Minds, Not Miners. Washington, PIIE, July 6, 2017. Available at: https://piie.com/commentary/op-eds/us-needs-invest-minds-not-miners/ (accessed 02.10.2017).

13. The Impact of Technology on Labor Markets. Washington, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017. Available at: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2017/beyond-bls/the-impact-of-technology-on-labor-markets.htm (accessed 12.01.2018).

14. Women in the Labor Force: a Databook. Washington, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2017. Available at: https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/womens-databook/2017/home.htm/ (accessed 12.01.2018).

15. Employment Projections: 2016/26 Summary. Washington, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 24, 2017. Available at: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm/ (accessed 20.11.2017).

16. The 2017 Retirement Confidence Survey. Employee Benefit Research Institute. April 2017, 32 p. Available at: https://www.ebri.org/pdf/briefspdf/EBRI_IB_431_RCS.21Mar17.pdf (accessed 02.02.2018).

17. National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Washington, White House, December 2017. 68 p. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905-2.pdf (accessed 19.12.2017).

18. Economic Report of the President. Washington, White House, February 2003.

19. Travkina N.M. Prezidentskie vybory 2016 v SShA [Presidential elections 2016 in the USA]. Perspektivy, 07.12.2016. Available at: http://www.perspektivy.info/oykumena/amerika/prezidentskije_vybory_2016_g_v_ssha_itogi_i_perspektivy_2016-12-07.htm/ (accessed 09.02.2018).

20. America First. A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again. Washington, Office of Management and Budget, March 2017. 62 p. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/2018_blueprint.pdf (accessed 05.06.2017).

21. An American Budget. FY2019. Washington, White House, February 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/budget-fy2019.pdf (accessed 15.02.2018).

22. Monthly US International Trade in Goods and Services. Washington, US Census Bureau, April 5, 2018. Available at: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf (accessed 07.04.2018).

23. Dmitriev S., Korolev I. Kontury formiryusheisya vneshneekonomicheskoi programmy SSHA [Contours of Emerging U. S. Foreign Trade Program]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2017, vol. 61, no. 10, pp. 25-36. DOI:10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-10-25-36

24. Lebedeva L.F. Transkontine ntal’nye partnerstva na pereput’e: faktory, riski, posledstviya [Transcontinental partnerships at the crossroads: factors, risks, consequences]. Kontury globalnyh transformatsii: politika, ekonomika, pravo, 2017, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 54-59. DOI:10.23932/2542-0240-2017-10-4-54-69

25. Is Trump Remaking American Trade Enforcement Policy? Washington, Brookings Institution, February 16, 2018. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/02/16/is-trump-remaking-american-trade-enforcement-policy/ (accessed 26.02.2018).

26. National Solar Jobs Census 2017. The Solar Foundation, January 2018. Available at: https://www.thesolarfoundation.org/national/ (accessed 26.02.2018).

27. Jobs Supported by State Exports, 2016. Washington, International Trade Administration, December 2017. Available at: https://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/build/groups/public/@tg_ian/documents/webcontent/tg_ian_005558.pdf (accessed 16.01.2018).

28. US Trade Overview. Washington, International Trade Administration, April 2017. Available at: https://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/build/groups/public/@tg_ian/documents/webcontent/tg_ian_005537.pdf (accessed 22.02.2018).

29.  US Metros Most Exposed to a Trump Trade Shock. Washington, Brookings Institute, January 30, 2017. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/01/27/u-s-metros-most-dependent-on-trade/ (accessed 26.02.2018).

30. Mir 2035. Global’nyi prognoz [World 2035. Global forecast]. Dynkin A.A., ed. Moscow, Magistr, 2017. 352 p.

31. Activities of US Multinational Enterprises. Survey of Current Business, December 2017. Available at: https://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2017/12-December/1217-activities-of-us-multinational-enterprises.pdf (accessed 14.01.2018).

32. Activities of US Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises. Survey of Current Business, August 2017. Available at: https://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2017/08-August/0817-activities-of-us-affiliates-of-foreign-multinational-enterprises.pdf (accessed 14.01.2018).

33. Jobs Attributable to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the United States. Washington, International Trade Administration, February 2016. Available at: https://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/employment/ (accessed 16.01.2018).

34. Sadovaya E.S., Sautkina V.A. Transformatsiya printsipov sovremennogo miroustroystva: sotsial’nye aspekty [Transformation of the principles of the modern world pattern: social aspects]. Moscow, IMEMO, 2015. 204 p. 


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Lebedeva L. Creating Jobs under Trumps Policy: Priorities, Realities and Risks. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2018, vol. 62, No 11, pp. 77-86. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-11-77-86



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2023, vol. 67, No. 6
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Far Eastern Regions of RF in Modern Russian-Chinese Cooperation  
  • Caribbean Segment of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the Context of Sino-US Relations
  • “Hard Power” of Afghan Radical Islamists in Asia
  • Grounding Ontology of the “International” in Terms of Radical Constructivism
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.