E. Àrapova (email@example.com),
MGIMO University, 76, Prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454, Russian Federation
Acknowledgement. The research was supported by the Russian Fund for Humanities, project no. 16-07-50004 “Complex assessment of prospects for region-wide economic integration in the Asia-Pacific in the context of Russia’s strategic priorities”.
Abstract. Amid sluggish global trade growth and lower export revenues most of Asian countries search for new drivers of regional development and move from outward-looking, export-oriented development toward higher domestic demand and final consumption expenditures. Packages of macro-prudential reforms include monetary easing and stimulating fiscal policy. The research aims at conducting complex qualitative and quantitative analysis of key measures, taken by governments and monetary authorities to stimulate domestic demand. 11 countries, including 7 countries of South-East Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei Darussalam), China, Japan, Republic of Korea and India are objects of the research. The author explores intensity of reforms, and conducts quantitative assessment of their potential influence on final consumption expenditures in every particular country. Such an approach allows conducting comparative analysis of consumer potential among Asian countries, revealing those of them, which may become the most successful on the way to consumption-led growth. Quantitative analysis based on log-log transformation of linear regression model helps to reveal that fiscal instruments can have greater influence on final consumption expenditure compared with monetary ones (interest rates and reserve requirement ratios manipulations). China, Thailand and Republic of Korea are among those countries, which conduct supportive fiscal policies using various instruments (fiscal stimuli) and tend to monetary easing, stimulating private household expenditures as well. China will remain a key driver of regional consumptionled development in both medium- and long-run due to substantial population, high share of working-age population (despite downward trend since 2012) and intensive stimulating reforms, resulting in rapid growth of the middle class. Nevertheless, it has been proved empirically that rising incomes may transform into rapid growth of savings, which will surpass increase in national consumption. At the same time, Thailand and Republic of Korea may become those countries, which contribution to regional consumption may increase substantially by 2020–2025 due to intensive consumption stimulating reforms and their greater influence on final consumption expenditures.
Keywords: Asia, consumption, economic policy, fiscal stimulation, monetary easing, interest rates, governmental expenditures
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