China: Congress Factor and Trump Factor

473
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-6-23-32

V. Mikheev (mikheev@imemo.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation;
S. Lukonin (sergeylukonin@mail.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation;
S. Ignat'ev (ignatyev.serge@gmail.com),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation 

Abstract. The upcoming 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which will be held in autumn 2017, has a significant impact on China’s policy. Xi Jinping tries to use this period of time for further consolidation of political and military power to strengthen his positions. The paper highlights three main trends taking place in internal political sphere of China: an informal discussion on limiting the maximum age of Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, the question if Xi will stay for his third term in 2022, and what arrangement of the new Politburo will be. In terms of world economy, P.R.C. has sent a signal that Beijing is going to become a leader of globalization. At the World Economic Forum in January 2017, Xi offered to international community a strategy of “inclusive globalization”, which will be against protectionism. At the same time, the strategic vulnerability of Beijing to the Taiwan factor appeared in a new light after Donald Trump had said that “One-China policy is negotiable”. Thus, there is a contradictory situation where China, on the one hand, needs a global partnership with the United States to implement its new role of the globalization leader, but, on the other, Beijing does not want to have a drastic deterioration in relations with Washington if Trump would depart from the “One-China” principle. P.R.C. seeks to demonstrate its willingness to become a leader in world economy and financial sphere through the mechanisms of The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and other platforms and strategies, such as the Silk Road Fund, BRICS Development Bank, etc. But, nevertheless, it is important to stress that by 2020 China will need to develop and test new mechanisms of national macroeconomic management, which can be effectively used in most open economies. In terms of foreign and defense policy, P.R.C. applies the tactics of “rigidity and compromise” – a new version of the “carrot and stick” policy. On the one part, Xi uses the tools of rigidity to defend China’s “national interests”, on the other, he proposes compromise solutions to his friends and competitors in addressing disputes and overcoming different understandings. Strategically speaking, Russia is interested to cooperate with China in economic sphere, G 20, military and political fields. However, it needs to conduct smart and responsible policy not to become a player number two in Russian-Chinese relations. 

Keywords: world economy, China, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Silk Road Economic Belt, foreign policy, globalization, protectionism 


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Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Mikheev V., Lukonin S., Ignatev S. China: Congress Factor and Trump Factor. World Eñonomy and International Relations, 2017, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 23-32. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-6-23-32



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