China: Congress Factor and Trump Factor

461
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-6-23-32

V. Mikheev (mikheev@imemo.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation;
S. Lukonin (sergeylukonin@mail.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation;
S. Ignat'ev (ignatyev.serge@gmail.com),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation 

Abstract. The upcoming 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which will be held in autumn 2017, has a significant impact on China’s policy. Xi Jinping tries to use this period of time for further consolidation of political and military power to strengthen his positions. The paper highlights three main trends taking place in internal political sphere of China: an informal discussion on limiting the maximum age of Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, the question if Xi will stay for his third term in 2022, and what arrangement of the new Politburo will be. In terms of world economy, P.R.C. has sent a signal that Beijing is going to become a leader of globalization. At the World Economic Forum in January 2017, Xi offered to international community a strategy of “inclusive globalization”, which will be against protectionism. At the same time, the strategic vulnerability of Beijing to the Taiwan factor appeared in a new light after Donald Trump had said that “One-China policy is negotiable”. Thus, there is a contradictory situation where China, on the one hand, needs a global partnership with the United States to implement its new role of the globalization leader, but, on the other, Beijing does not want to have a drastic deterioration in relations with Washington if Trump would depart from the “One-China” principle. P.R.C. seeks to demonstrate its willingness to become a leader in world economy and financial sphere through the mechanisms of The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and other platforms and strategies, such as the Silk Road Fund, BRICS Development Bank, etc. But, nevertheless, it is important to stress that by 2020 China will need to develop and test new mechanisms of national macroeconomic management, which can be effectively used in most open economies. In terms of foreign and defense policy, P.R.C. applies the tactics of “rigidity and compromise” – a new version of the “carrot and stick” policy. On the one part, Xi uses the tools of rigidity to defend China’s “national interests”, on the other, he proposes compromise solutions to his friends and competitors in addressing disputes and overcoming different understandings. Strategically speaking, Russia is interested to cooperate with China in economic sphere, G 20, military and political fields. However, it needs to conduct smart and responsible policy not to become a player number two in Russian-Chinese relations. 

Keywords: world economy, China, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Silk Road Economic Belt, foreign policy, globalization, protectionism 


REFERENCES

1. Xinhua Insight: China’s Leadership Takes “Big Exam”. Available at: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2014-03/23/c_133208015_3.htm (accessed 20.01.2017).

2. 2016: A Good Start for China’s Economy During the 13th Five-Year Plan Period. Available at: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201701/t20170120_1455922.html (accessed 13.02.2017).

3. China Auto Sales Growth Accelerates on Rising SUV Demand. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/china-auto-sales-grow-at-faster-pace-on-suv-electric-car-demand (accessed 27.12.2016).

4. Chinese Foreign Media Deals Hit by Curbs on Capital Outflows. Available at: http://www.chinagoabroad.com/en/market_review/chinese-foreign-media-deals-hit-by-curbs-on-capital-outflows (accessed 15.01.2017).

5. Why Obsessing Over GDP is no Longer in China’s Best Interests. Available at: http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2060035/why-obsessing-over-gdp-no-longer-chinas-best-interests (accessed 28.01.2017).

6. 2016: A Good Start for China’s Economy during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period. Available at: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201701/t20170120_1455922.html (accessed 13.02.2017).

7. China Slowdown Expected to Continue as 2016 Growth Slips to 6.7%. Available at: http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-01-20/101047454.html (accessed 13.02.2017).

8. China’s ODI up 44.1% in 2016. Available at: http://www.china.org.cn/business/2017-01/16/content_40114419.htm (accessed 13.02.2017).

9. Non-financial ODI up in Jan-Nov. Available at: http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-12/16/content_27685855.htm (accessed 13.02.2017).

10. China’s Midea Acquires 95% of Germany’s Kuka. Available at: http://bostoncommons.net/chinas-midea-acquires-95-ofgermanys-kuka/ (accessed 19.11.2016).

11. Ethiopia-Djibouti Electric Railway Line Opens. Available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37562177 (accessed 19.12.2016).

12. Violent Protests Against Chinese ‘Colony’ In Sri Lanka Rage On. Available at: http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/01/08/violent-protests-against-chinese-colony-in-hambantota-sri-lanka-rage-on/#5556277e29ed (accessed 20.01.2017).

13. “Special Forceto Guard Pakistan-China Projects. Available at: https://www.samaa.tv/pakistan/2015/04/special-force-toguard-pak-china-projects-military/ (accessed 13.01.2017).

14. China’s Pakistan Project: a Geopolitical Game-Changer. Available at: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/12/15/chinas-pakistan-project-a-geopolitical-game-changer/ (accessed 13.01.2017).

15. China’s Xi Jinping Seizes Role as Leader on Globalization. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-defendsglobalization-1484654899 (accessed 28.01.2017).

16. President Xi’s Speech to Davos in Full. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/full-text-of-xi-jinping-keynoteat-the-world-economic-forum (accessed 01.02.2017).

17. China Says Trump’s Taiwan Comments Cause ‘’Serious Concern’’. Available at: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0b462e501d8040498673bebca6b92627/chinas-state-media-call-trump-naive-after-taiwan-comments (accessed 23.01.2017). 


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Mikheev V., Lukonin S., Ignatev S. China: Congress Factor and Trump Factor. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2017, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 23-32. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-6-23-32



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 7
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • The Supporting Structure of Global Security
  • Institutional Features of the Fourth Energy Transition
  • The Evolution of Modern German Christian Democracy
  • The Monarchies of the Persian Gulf and Central Asia
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.