V. Fal’tsman (firstname.lastname@example.org),
Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), 84, Vernadskogo Prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation
Abstract. The influence of the current crisis in foreign economic activities on innovations, investment and economic growth in the Russian economy is considered. The author estimates competitive advantages and industrial growth factors, prospects for import-substitution and exports of consumer goods, cars, metal-cutting machinery, civil jets, armaments, products of atomic industry and some other branches, as well as of tourist and transportation services. The limits of import substitution of high-tech products – drugs, medical and computing technologies, communication equipment and others – are shown. The author discusses four possible scenarios to promote competitiveness of national goods at domestic and world markets: (1) joint projects with the foreign companies, (2) technology borrowing, (3) conversion of domestic military and energy complexes, (4) new social request to the Russian science. The options to increase the non-budgetary investment into import substitution and export development are mainly based on the state measures to increase the attraction of projects to home and foreign investors. Under the current conditions of ageing population, reducing employment, exhaustion of oil-fields as well as other natural resources the state policy re-orientation towards lower social commitments and ambitions seems inevitable. The role of the state switches from direct financing of projects to improving the external framework of project implementation and providing local preferences both on regional and municipal levels. The resource of budgetary financing transforms into administrative intervention. The burden of overcoming the current crisis of foreign economic activity is further transferred to the regional and municipal levels as well as to private enterprise. An essential prerequisite for promptly overcoming foreign economic activities’ crisis relates to the improvement of global geopolitical situation.
Keywords: foreign trade, crisis, competitiveness, import substitution, raw materials’ export, investment, innovations, growth points
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