Leadership in BRICS: Forecasts and Reality

758
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-5-25-33

Y. Leksyutina (lexyana@ya.ru),
St.Petersburg State University, 7/9 Universitetskaya Emb., St.Petersburg 199034, Russian Federation 

Acknowledgements. The paper was prepared within the framework of research project sponsored by Saint-Petersburg State University, grant no. 17.37.226.2016.


Abstract. In 2015, for the first time since the creation of the BRIC acronym in 2001, China demonstrated GDP growth rates lower than the other BRIC/BRICS countries. The fact that India overtook China in terms of GDP growth made headlines around the globe and initiated a discussion in the expert and academic communities over the possibility of India becoming a new economic leader in the BRICS. By examining BRICS countries’ current and expected macroeconomic performance and by specifying roles they play in the international monetary and financial system this article aims to identify actual leading economic force in the BRICS. The focus of the research is put on the question whether India has capacity and strong prospects to replace China as a driver of the BRICS grouping in light of India’s recently improved economic performance. After comparing major macroeconomic indicators of the BRICS countries and revealing challenges that China and India face in the process of economic development and measures both governments undertake to tackle them, it further proceeds with an analysis of roles China and other BRICS countries play in the international monetary and financial system. A cross country comparison for the BRICS countries’ macroeconomic indicators and complex indexes reveals that China continues to be the leading force in this grouping in the economic realm. In terms of global economy agenda setting capacity and decision-making capacity, China is also far ahead of other BRICS countries. The article concludes that India’s recent successful economic development doesn’t provide enough grounds to claim its leadership role in the grouping; it is China that is set to remain the economic leader of the BRICS in the foreseen future. 

Keywords: BRICS, China, India, economic development, macroeconomic performance, economic reforms, GDP, development banks, yuan internationalization 


REFERENCES

1. World Bank Open Data. Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/ (accessed 02.11.2016).

2. World Bank. Global Economic Prospects, January 2017. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects (accessed 11.01.2017).

3. Magalhaes L. China Only BRIC Country Currently Worthy of the Title – O’Neill. The Wall Street Journal, 23.08.2013. Available at: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/08/23/china-only-bric-country-currently-worthy-of-the-title-oneill/ (accessed 19.10.2016).

4. India Outpaces China in 2015 Economic Growth. BBC News, 08.02.2016. Available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35519671 (accessed 10.11.2016).

5. Press Note on Poverty Estimates, 2011–2012. 2013. Available at: http://planningcommission.gov.in/news/pre_pov2307.pdf (accessed 11.08.2016).

6. Report of the Expert Group to Review the Methodology for Measurement of Poverty, 2014. Available at: http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/pov_rep0707.pdf (accessed 07.11.2016).

7. World Bank. India Overview. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/overview (accessed 07.11.2016).

8. Indian Economy Cannot Surpass China’s GDP: Chinese Media. The Economic Time, 17.03.2016. Available at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/indian-economy-cannot-surpass-chinas-gdp-chinese-media/articleshow/51439769.cms (accessed 03.11.2016).

9. Human Development Report 2015. UN Development Programme (In Russ.) Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr_2015_report_ru.pdf (accessed 01.10.2016).

10. The Global Competitiveness Report 2016–2017. Geneva, 2016. Available at: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR2016-2017/05FullReport/TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2016-2017_FINAL.pdf (accessed 13.10.2016).

11. The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2016. Available at: http://www.imd.org/wcc/news-wcy-ranking/ (accessed 13.10.2016).

12. UN Comtrade Database. Available at: http://comtrade.un.org/ (accessed 02.10.2016).

13. World Investment Report 2016. Available at: http://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/Annex-Tables.aspx (accessed 11.11.2016).

14. An Overview of the Economic Performance and Major Directions of India’s Foreign Economic Activities in 2015/16 financial year. Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in India. New Delhi, 2015. 115 p. (In Russ.)

15. Annual Report on the Economic Performance and Major Directions of the PRC’s Foreign Economic Activities in 2015. Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in the PRC. Beijing, 2016. 164 p. (In Russ.)

16. IBRD Subscriptions and Voting Power of Member Countries. Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/BODINT/Resources/278027-1215524804501/IBRDCountryVotingTable.pdf (accessed 25.06.2016).

17. Andreev V. P. Internatsionalizatsiya kitaiskogo yuanya – na puti k mirovoi valyute [China’s Yuan Internationalization – on the Way to the Global Currency]. Den’gi i kredit, 2014, no. 7, pp. 49-54.

18. Tsyplakov S. Deval’vatsiya yuanya: prichiny i posledstviya [Devaluation of Yuan: Causes and Consequences]. Problemy Dal’nego Vostoka, 2015, no. 5, pp. 25-31.

19. People’s Bank of China’s Annual Report 2014. Available at: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/eportal/fileDir/image_public/UserFiles/english/upload/File/%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C2014%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E5%B9%B4%E6%8A%A56.15%EF%BC%88%E5%AE%9A%E7%A8%BF%EF%BC%89.pdf (accessed 11.06.2016).

20. Zhu Yihong. Swap Agreements & China’s RMB Currency Network, 22.05.2015. Available at: http://cogitasia.com/swap-agreements-chinas-rmb-currency-network/ (accessed 07.06.2016).

21. RMB Tracker April 2013. Available at: https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/document-centre#topic-tabs-menu (accessed 02.11.2016).

22. RMB Tracker April 2016. Available at: https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/document-centre#topic-tabs-menu (accessed 02.11.2016).

23. About Union Pay International. Available at: http://www.unionpayintl.com/en/enaboutUpi/encompanyProfile/index.shtml (accessed 05.06.2016).

24. Payment Cards Numbers World-wide up 8.2% in 2015 Whilst Usage Grew 16%, 13.05.2016. Available at: https://ctmfile.com/story/payment-cards-numbers-world-wide-up-8.2-in-2015-whilst-usage-grew-16 (accessed 05.06.2016).

25. Overview: Chinese Initiative “Belt and Road” Creates Opportunities for the World. Renmin Ribao, 16.03.2016 (In Russ.) Available at: http://russian.people.com.cn//n3/2016/0316/c31521-9030653.html (accessed 20.07.2016). 


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Leksyutina Y. Leadership in BRICS: Forecasts and Reality. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2017, vol. 61, no. 5, pp. 25-33. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-5-25-33



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 5
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Are There Any Ways to Break Through the Korean Nuclear Impasse?
  • Contemporary U.S. Taiwan Policy: Balancing on the Edge
  • The Gulf Monarchies’ Vision of the Global Order Transformations and the Russian Place in It
  • At Post-Soviet Space
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.