European Order: A Peaceful Change of Paradigm?

2491
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-3-36-44
K. Voronov (kvoronov@mail.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation 

 

Abstract. The latest realities (Brexit, the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the USA) presuppose a new approach to understanding of possible changes, to transformation of international political order in Europe at the present stage of post-bipolar period. This is an attempt to examine potential changes of the current Euro-Atlantic order outlines in Europe on the basis of the major actors’ political courses modifications (the USA, Russia and Germany). Early in 1990s, many people assumed the possibility of a total democratic transformation of the whole political space from Vancouver to Vladivostok. Under current conditions of the relations worsening between the Russian Federation and the West (the Ukrainian crisis, the sanctions policy, Syrian events), one can see more viable constructions for the pan-European security system to create on the basis of Eurocentrism, by means of pragmatic harmonization between Germany and Russia providing that there will be an essential shift of the United States’ strategic attention from Europe to the Asia- Pacific region, the Greater Middle East and the South Asia. The President V. Putin’s impressive plan to revive Russia as a great power, to create its own zone of security in the “near abroad” provokes the corresponding nervousness and unpredictable consequences in the world arena. At the same time, the Russian Federation has a lot of huge structural problems which can also lead to crisis or even to some breaks. Germany continues its stable and long ascent to become an incontestable “center of power” in Europe (still without defining the European agenda), to reach the status of “an additional” superpower. Due to forthcoming changes in the U.S. foreign policy under D. Trump administration, it evidently must prepare to all alternatives. Quiet times have probably gone also for the integrating Europe which learns to live under conditions of a permanent crisis, in the zone of higher turbulence. The critical set of changes in geostrategic context on the continent may apparently change the order in Europe, or lead to destruction of old forms and genesis of different new forms.

 

Keywords: Europe, USA, Germany, Russia, European order, political space, pan-European security system, Atlanticism 


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For citation:
Voronov K. European Order: A Peaceful Change of Paradigm?. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2017, vol. 61, no. 3, pp. 36-44. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-3-36-44



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