Real Threat or Forged Scarecrow?

DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-12-18-26

A. Kalyadin (,
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation 

Abstract. The article examines the role of the “Nuclear Disarming Strikes” (NDS) concept in the context of the current informational confrontation between the USA and Russia. The author substantiates the conclusion that attacks on Russian nuclear deterrent facilities by means of the NDS would be counteracted with retaliatory strikes and inevitably have disastrous ecological, humanitarian, domestic and international political consequences for the aggressor. It is demonstrated that even militarily successful NDS against Russia would involve enormous harmful consequences for the USA. Firstly, the USA would lose the support of their current European allies, the victims of possible American nuclear explosions carried out in the European part of the Russian Federation. It is stressed that almost the entire territory of the continent would become a zone of contamination by radionuclides with total gamma radiation doses that significantly disrupt the functions of the human immune system. Tens of millions of residents of the Western part of Europe, subjected to radiation damage, would be doomed to death. People would find themselves without normal drinking water, in conditions of extreme psychological stress and degradation. Secondly, considering that the NDSs would be carried out in the context of the evolving global process of stigmatization of nuclear weapons, the aggressor runs a high risk to become a war criminal, an outcast state, and a “universal Evil”. Thirdly, China, the American main geopolitical rival and trade competitor, may take advantage of the new strategic situation and try to supersede the USA in the system of the global political and economic governance. Of course, the U.S. president, guided by common sense, national egoism, and just a sense of political self-preservation, can not give consent to such an insane and criminal adventure as NDS. However, the NDS stratagem is used in the informational confrontation as a “scarecrow” to trigger panic among Russian population and bluff it into huge wasteful expenditures, thus undermining the country’s competitiveness and depriving it of development prospects. The NDS bluff increases the likelihood of the use of nuclear weapons, thus undermining international strategic stability. Suggestions are offered on how to respond adequately to this challenge. 

Keywords: informational confrontation, “scarecrow”, bluff, Nuclear Disarming Strikes, retaliatory strike, unacceptable damage, nuclear explosions, contamination by radionuclides; humanitarian, international political and domestic political consequences 


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For citation:
Kalyadin A. Real Threat or Forged Scarecrow?. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2017, vol. 61, no. 12, pp. 18-26.

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