864A. Akimov (akimovivran@mail.ru),
Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, 12, Rozhdestvenka Str., Moscow, 107031, Russian Federation
Abstract. In the coming years, robotics alongside with other labor-saving technologies (computer digital control machine-tools, artificial intelligence, additive technologies, big high-productive machinery in mining, as well as technologies that were revolutionary several decades ago like mechanization in agriculture and remote access banking) can significantly influence social and economic development via labor market. Considerable decrease of employment may result in formation of the following social groups: power and technology elites, service labor and a great number of dependents with no job. This social structure may form three types of societies. First, an analog of the ancient Rome where elite supplied people with means of subsistence and public shows. Second, a communist model of Karl Marks that was formulated in the “Critique of the Gotha Program”. Third, an anti-utopia with democides, or mass murders of the own country’s people exercised by a ruling power, as it was in the 20th century (the most well-known case is Holocaust). Developed states can easier adopt their social environment to technological changes than developing countries. A social experiment with basic income, which is going on in Finland now, is a concrete step to prepare for future changes in the labor market. The current political system of China also has means to meet social challenges created by new technologies, using a central planning mechanism and political control. Developing countries may get benefits from new technologies as they are more productive, but the low demand for labor will be a great problem. To solve it developing countries may give up on the export-oriented model in their social and economic development and find a new one. Possible elements of a new model can be: import substitution, South-South cooperation, and rural development instead of urbanization.
Keywords: labor-saving technologies, social results, development models, developed and developing countries
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