A. Akimov (firstname.lastname@example.org),
Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, 12, Rozhdestvenka Str., Moscow, 107031, Russian Federation
In the coming years, robotics alongside with other labor-saving technologies (computer digital control machine-tools, artificial intelligence, additive technologies, big high-productive machinery in mining, as well as technologies that were revolutionary several decades ago like mechanization in agriculture and remote access banking) can significantly influence social and economic development via labor market. Considerable decrease of employment may result in formation of the following social groups: power and technology elites, service labor and a great number of dependents with no job. This social structure may form three types of societies. First, an analog of the ancient Rome where elite supplied people with means of subsistence and public shows. Second, a communist model of Karl Marks that was formulated in the “Critique of the Gotha Program”. Third, an anti-utopia with democides, or mass murders of the own country’s people exercised by a ruling power, as it was in the 20th century (the most well-known case is Holocaust). Developed states can easier adopt their social environment to technological changes than developing countries. A social experiment with basic income, which is going on in Finland now, is a concrete step to prepare for future changes in the labor market. The current political system of China also has means to meet social challenges created by new technologies, using a central planning mechanism and political control. Developing countries may get benefits from new technologies as they are more productive, but the low demand for labor will be a great problem. To solve it developing countries may give up on the export-oriented model in their social and economic development and find a new one. Possible elements of a new model can be: import substitution, South-South cooperation, and rural development instead of urbanization.
labor-saving technologies, social results, development models, developed and developing countries
1. Akimov A.V. Robototekhnika: sostoyanie i perspektivy razvitiya v mire i Rossii [Robotics: the Present State and Perspectives in the World and in Russia]. Poisk, al’ternativy, vybor, 2016, no. 2, pp. 114-125.
2. Akimov A.V. Demograficheskii vzryv, starenie naseleniya i trudosberegayushchie tekhnologii: vzaimodeistvie v XXI v. [Demographic Burst, Population Aging and Labor-Saving Technologies: Interaction in the XXI Century]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2016, no. 5, pp. 50-60.
3. Tsvetkova N.N. Informatsionno-kommunikatsionnye tekhnologii v stranakh Vostoka: proizvodstvo tovarov IKT i IT-uslug [Information and Communication Technologies in Asian Countries: ICT Goods and ITservices Production] Moscow, IV RAN, 2016. 228 p.
4. Malyarov O.V. Nezavisimaya Indiya: evolyutsiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoi modeli i razvitie ekonomiki [Independent India: Evolution of Socio-Economic Model and Economic Development]. Kniga 1. Moscow, Vostochnaya literature, 2010. 744 p.
5. World Population Prospects 2017. Available at: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/download/standard/population/ (accessed 13.04.2017).
6. Labor Market in the Countries of the World (IT and Telecom) (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.tadviser.ru/index.php/%D0%A1%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C%D1%8F:%D0%A0%D1%8B%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BA_%D1%82%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B0_%D0%B2_%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%85_%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B0_(%D0%98%D0%A2_%D0%B8_%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BC) (accessed 13.04.2017).
7. Population of India. Available at: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/ (accessed 13.04.2017).
8. Fr. Publ.: Carcopino J. La vie quotidienne a Rome a l’apogee de l’Empire. Paris, Hachette, 1939.
9. Marks K. Kritika Gotskoi programmy (1875) [Critique of the Gotha Program] Available at: https://www.marxists.org/russkij/marx/1875/gotha.htm (accessed 12.04.2017).
10. Vishnevskii A.G., Dmitriev R.V. Global’nye demograficheskie protsessy v XX – nachale XXI vekov [Global Demographic Processes in the XX and in the Beginning of the XXI Century]. Geografiya mirovogo razvitiya. Vyp. 3. Moscow, Tovarishhestvo nauchnyh izdanii KMK, 2016, pp. 197-229.
11. About BIEN (2017). Available at: http://basicincome.org/about-bien/ (accessed 15.02.2017).
12. Graham Luke. Finland Experiments with Universal Basic Income Scheme. 2017. Available at: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/finland-experiments-universal-basic-income.html (accessed 24.02.2017).
13. Eng. Publ.: Schwab K. The Fourth Industrial Revolution. London, Penguin, 2016.
14. Eng. Publ.: Ford M. Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future. New York, Basic Books, 2015.
15. Volodin A.G. Politicheskaya ekonomiya demokratii [Political Economy of Democracy]. Moscow, Gumanitarii, 2008. 288 p.
16. Pivovarova E.P. Sotsializm s kitaiskoi spetsifikoi [Socialism with Chinese Specifics]. Moscow, Forum, 2011. 352 p.
17. United Nations General Assembly. The State of South-South cooperation. Report of the Secretary-General. Sixty-sixth session. A/66/229. Available at: http://www.preventionweb.net/files/resolutions/N1144233.pdf (accessed 12.04.2017).
18. Deryugina I.V. Sel’skoe khozyaistvo mira: proshloe i budushchee 1980–2010–2050 [World Agriculture: Past and Future 1980-2010-2050]. Moscow, Pero. 128 p.
19. Korotaev A.V., Bozhevol’nov Yu.V., Grinin L.E., Zin’kina Yu.V., Kobzeva S.V. K prognozirovaniyu politicheskoi nestabil’nosti v stranakh Afriki na period do 2050 g. [Forecasting Political Instability in African States up to 2050]. Proekty i riski budushchego. Kontseptsii, modeli, instrumenty, prognozy, Mоscow, KRASAND, 2011, ch. 18, pp. 357-379.
Registered in system SCIENCE INDEX