E. Sadovaya, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation (email@example.com),
A. Bardin, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation (firstname.lastname@example.org),
E. Dovbysh, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation (email@example.com)
Acknowledgements. The research is supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation as part of the project ¹ 15-18-00021, “Regulation of Inter-Ethnic Relations and Ethno-Social Conflicts in the Modern World: the Potential of Civic Identity (Comparative Policy Analysis)” at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Abstract. The modern world is characterized by intensification of complex ethnopolitical conflicts which are mostly irrational, rough and lead to large numbers of casualties. They are also increasingly often used as geopolitical tools; in that, they undermine both national and international stability. It is therefore one of the key tasks of modern political science – not only to improve the level of theoretical and conceptual understanding of the nature of ethnicity and ethnic conflicts, but also to detect the weak points of national politics and to develop effective policy that would prevent such conflicts from emerging. To achieve this goal, researchers need to outline key factors of a conflict and to assess the value of each of them. Indices of social well-being have been gaining popularity among researchers lately, since they are applicable for cross-country and longitudinal studies, are useful for studying different aspects of social situations, and (last, but not the least) allow to draw a simplified picture of social processes, helping the decision-makers and public to comprehend them easier. However, indices of social well-being have a number of drawbacks as well. This article covers their history, classification, and both pros and cons of their application in research and forecasting of ethnopolitical conflicts. It is concluded that none of existing indices excel at this task; however, some of them are more valuable than others. The authors underline the fact that not all ethnic tensions result in ethnopolitical full-scale conflicts, outline key conditions under which such transition is possible, and comment on the methodology applicable for prediction of this transition.
Keywords: ethnicity, ethnopolitical conflict, polarized society, indices, indicators of social well-being, forecasting of conflicts, comparative studies
1. Banura R., del Campo M. A Survey of Composite Indices Measuring Country Performance: 2006 Update. A UNDP/ODS Working Paper, 2006. 92 p. Available at: http://www.eldis.org/vfile/upload/1/document/1112/measuring_country_performance_2006update.pdf (accessed 17.04.2016).
2. Sharpe A. et al. Literature Review of Frameworks for Macro-indicators. CSLS Research Report 2004-03. Ottawa, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, 2004. 92 p. Available at: http://www.eldis.org/vfile/upload/1/document/1112/measuring_country_performance_2006update.pdf (accessed 17.04.2016).
3. Simpson E.H. Measurement of Diversity. Nature, 1949, vol. 163, p. 688. DOI: 10.1038/163688a0
4. Taylor C.L., Hudson M.C. The World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators. 2nd ed. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1972. 443 p.
5. Greenberg J.H. The Measurement of Linguistic Diversity. Language, 1956, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 109-115.
6. Desmet K., Ortuño-Ortín I., Weber S. Peripheral Diversity and Redistribution. CEPR Discussion Papers. 2005. ¹ 5112. 45 p.
7. Ekkel' B.M. Opredelenie indeksa mozaichnosti natsional'nogo sostava respublik, kraev i oblastei SSSR [Calculation of a Mosaic Index for the Ethnic Composition of Republics, Krais, and Oblasts of the USSR]. Sovetskaya etnografiya, 1976, no. 2, p. 33-42.
8. Esteban J., Ray D. On the Measurement of Polarization. Econometrica, 1994, vol. 62, no. 4, pp. 819-851. DOI: 10.2307/2951734
9. Reynal-Querol M. Ethnicity, Political Systems and Civil War. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2002, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 29-55. DOI: 10.1177/0022002702046001003
10. Worldwide Governance Indicators. Available at: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home (accessed 17.04.2016).
11. Indicators of Sustainable Development. Available at: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/indicators (accessed 17.04.2016).
12. Human Development Reports. Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data (accessed 17.04.2016).
13. Human Development Report 2015. Work for Human Development (In Russ.) Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr15_standalone_overview_ru.pdf (accessed 17.04.2016).
14. Human Development Report 2010.The Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.un.org/ru/development/hdr/2010/hdr_2010_ch5.pdf (accessed 17.04.2016).
15. Report on Human Development in Russian Federation in 2014. Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerability and Building Resilience (In Russ.) Available at: hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr14-summary-ru.pdf (accessed 21.04.2015).
16. Balatskii E.V., Saakyants K.M. Indeksy sotsial'nogo neravenstva [Indices of Social Inequality]. The Monitoring of Public Opinion, 2006, no. 2, p. 122-128.
17. Mel'nichuk M.V. Neravnomernost' sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya federal'nykh okrugov RF (2000–2006 gg.) [Inequality of Socio-economic Development of Russian Federal Districts (2000–2006]. Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship, 2008, no. 8, vol. 2(117), pp. 128-132. Available at: http://www.creativeconomy.ru/articles/12514/ (accessed 17.04.2016).
18. Saisana M., Tarantola S. State-of-the-art Report on Current Methodologies and Practices for Composite Indicator Development. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen, Technological and Economic Risk Management Unit, 2002. 214 ð.
19. Saisana M., Saltelli A., Tarantola S. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques as Tools for the Quality Assessment of Composite Indicators. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 2005, vol. 168, no. 2, pp. 307-323. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2005.00350.x
20. Foa R., Tanner J.C. Methodology of the Indices of Social Development. ISD Working Paper Series. 2012. No. 2012-04. 79 p. Available at: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/50510/ISD-WP-2012-4.pdf (accessed 17.04.2016).
21. Nardo M., Saisana M., Saltelli A., Tarantola S., Hoffman A., Giovannini E. Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators. OECD, European Commission, 2005. 162 p. DOI: 10.1787/533411815016
22. Nardo M., Saisana M., Saltelli A., Tarantola S. Tools for Composite Indicators Building. European Commission, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, JRC Ispra, Italy, 2005. 134 p.
23. Global Conflict Risk Index. Available at: http://conflictrisk.gdacs.org (accessed 17.04.2016).
24. Manuel V., Bormann N.-C., Rüegger S., Cederman L.-E., Hunziker P., Girardin L. Integrating Data on Ethnicity, Geography, and Conflict: The Ethnic Power Relations Dataset Family. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2015, vol. 59, no. 7, pp. 1327-1342. DOI: 10.1177/0022002715591215
25. Global Peace Index. Available at: http://www.visionofhumanity.org/#page/indexes/global-peace-index/2015/RUS,UKR/OVER (accessed 17.04.2016).
26. The Minorities at Risk Project. Available at: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar/ (accessed 17.04.2016).
27. Cederman L.E., Wimmer A., Min B. Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis. World Politics, 2010, vol. 62, no. 1, pp. 87-119. DOI: 10.1017/S0043887109990219
28. Shulman S. Challenging the Civic/Ethnic and West/East Dichotomies in the Study of Nationalism. Comparative Political Studies, 2002, vol. 35, no. 5. DOI: 10.1177/0010414002035005003
29. Rating of Ethnic Tension in Regions of Russia. Methodology (In Russ.) Available at: http://club-rf.ru/thegrapesofwrath/01/metodologiya.html (accessed 17.04.2016).
30. Brubaker R. Ethnicity without Groups. Harvard University Press, 2006. 296 p.
31. “Cure for National Narcissism”. Interview with A.I. Miller, Senior Researcher, Institute for Scientific Information on Social Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences (In Russ.) Available at: http://khazin.ru/khs/2091416 (accessed 17.04.2016).
32. Web-center “Sociodynamics”: Study, Analysis, Visualization and Modelling of Social Networks and Interactions (In Russ.) Available at: http://socio.escience.ifmo.ru/about/ (accessed 17.04.2016).
Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX