US Economic Growth: Trends and Factors

530
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2016-60-2-26-39

V. Varnavskii, Institute of Control Sciences V.A. Trapeznikov, Russian Academy of Sciences, 65, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation; Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation (varnavsky@imemo.ru

Abstract.  The article considers the main trends and factors of US economic growth. Economic and technological reasons for slowdown of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita and productivity are discussed. The author focuses on the estimates of key macroeconomic indicators published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics and other government agencies for analyzing historical growth and identifying factors contributions. Also, the article discusses points of view on the potential factors for continued economic growth in the future, including the statistics and calculations of the American economists. It is shown that the United States is nowadays facing fundamental problems of productivity, not just a cyclical downturn. A number of disturbing tendencies in the US economy, such as negative trends in both labor productivity and multifactor productivity (MFP) emerged well before the economic and financial crises of 2008 (Great Recession). As the author note, the US has entered into a period of relatively low GDP growth rate in comparison with 1990 – early 2000s. A reduction also occurred in the growth rate of GDP per capita, labor productivity and other indicators. Special attention is addressed to the roles of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Since mid-1990 the large-scale investments into the ICT provided a great portion of US economic growth and productivity. However, in the last 10 years the contribution of ICT to productivity growth noticeably reduced from its maximum value in 1995–2004. Nonetheless, it remains sizable and still contributes about one-fifth of the GDP growth and more than 40% of the growth in labor productivity. The author’s general conclusion is that, despite the existing problems in economic growth, United States remains the world’s most productive economy and the largest market for ICT goods and services. This is likely to continue encouraging the nation’s economic growth and productivity, although at a slower pace.

Keywords: USA, economic growth, GDP, GDP per capita, population, employment, unemployment, labor productivity, capital services, multifactor productivity, ICT, global competitiveness 


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Varnavskii V. US Economic Growth: Trends and Factors. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2016, vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 26-39. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2016-60-2-26-39



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 2

Topical Themes of the Issue:

  • Fiscal Policy of Advanced Economies: Playing by the Rules?  
  • Iranian Development Model: State and Society Concept, Crises and Problems
  • Afghan-Pakistan Relations: Problems and Challenges in XXI Century
  • Climate Issues under Changing Geopolitical Conditions
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.