World Economy Long Cycle in XXI Century

DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2016-60-12-5-16

V. Klinov, MGIMO-U, 76, Vernadskogo Prosp., Moscow, 119454, Russian Federation (

Abstract. World economy long wave modifications at the beginning of the current century are evaluated. Slower growth rates and other negative changes in advanced economies development such as rise in unemployment rate, decline in participation rate as well as national income distribution polarization are highlighted. They are explained by acute global competition, increase in the influence of process innovations compared with product ones, as well as by greater labor force supply in comparison with that of fixed capital stock. Prospects of the world economy up to 2040 are substantiated. World general business situation up to the end of 2010-s will be marked by cyclical downturn of the US economy. World economy long-term trend will be affected by a decline in GDP per capita growth rates of the USA and China. Those countries slowdown will not be offset by an increase of other major advanced and developing economies growth rates. World, advanced and developing economies average annual GDP growth rates totals will be by 0.6–0.9 percentage point lower in the coming period up to 2040 compared with those in 1996-2015.

Keywords: world economy, long (Kondratiev) wave, ascending wave, descending wave, medium-term (Juglar) cycle, global competition, ICT, product innovations, process innovations 


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For citation:
Klinov V. World Economy Long Cycle in XXI Century. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2016, vol. 60, no. 12, pp. 5-16.

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