Global Forecast of US National Intelligence Council

616
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2016-60-11-5-13

Y. Lukashin Moscow International Higher Business School (MIRBIS), 34/7,  Marksistskaya Str., Moscow, 109147, Russian Federation; Primakov National Research  Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences  (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation  (loukashin@rambler.ru);
L. Rahlina, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International  Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow  117997, Russian Federation (rahlinali@mail.ru

Abstract. The paper gives an analysis of the background, main trends, scenarios and factors of the long-term development of the world till 2030 which are exposed in forecasts of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in its report of 2012. A comparison of these forecasts with reality for recent years is given. The lack of a series of important events and tendencies in the world development is found in this report. Sometimes authors consider that fact as a forecast error in other cases as an attempt to place the USA and the consequences of their activity in a good light. Methodology of long-term forecasting of NIC is close to foresight. First of all the authors are interested in estimation of new role of the USA in changing World. They have constructed two global indexes of state power: one to estimate relative diplomatic power, the other to estimate relative material power. Forecasts were obtained with imitation computer model “International Futures” which included 6 relative dynamic sub-models with more than 2000 indicators on 70 states and regions of the world. It allowed consider different scenarios of development. Special part of the report was devoted to revolutionary technologies and economic growth. Many conclusions on demographic, urbanization trends, economic growth, shortage of water etc. are realistic. Weights of Russia, China, Japan in world economy are diminishing. China will leave behind the USA economically until 2030. Crisis of Eurozone and its disintegration are discussed in the report. Really, the consequences of “Color revolutions” and “Arabian spring” in which the USA undoubtedly took part are not estimated properly. The role of the USA in many cases as a factor of peace and development is overestimated. Thesis about “damping of Islamic terrorism” is not true. Problem of Ukraine isn’t even mentioned. Crisis of Eurozone with millions refugees is underestimated. Non-controllable Islamic migration into Europe was not predicted. Disintegration of 15 countries is pointed out as possible. However, this list doesn’t contain the Great Britain, Canada and other countries. As it is known, 29 American states want to leave the USA peacefully. Anti-Russian sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions, new groups BRICS, TIKKS are not taken into account. Consequences of shale revolution were mistaken. New integration and disintegration processes are going. Divergence of forecasts and reality is inevitable. In some cases it is due to quick changes of the world and in others due to subjective point of view of the forecaster. 

Keywords: world economy, global problems, long-term forecasting, foresight method

 


REFERENCES

1. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Publication of the National Intelligence Council. December 2012. 160 p. Available at: http://eurasian-defence.ru/sites/default/files/DS/Documents/global-trends‑2030-rus.pdf (accessed 14.04.2016).

2. Burrows M. The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo The World Unless We Take Action. New York, Palgrave Macmillan, 2014. 288 p.

3. Hughes B., Hillebrand E. Exploring and Shaping International Futures. London, New York, Routledge, 2006. 256 p.

4. Makhova N. Forsait-issledovaniya: stranovaya spetsifika i obshchie zakonomernosti [Foresight: Country Specifies and General Patterns]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2014, no. 8, pp. 34-44.

5. Tulupov D. Razvedka – navsegda! Evolyutsiya prognozirovaniya riskov v informatsionno-analiticheskoi praktike razvedsluzhb. [Intelligence Forever! Evolution of Forecasting Risks in Information Analysis Practice of Intelligence Service]. Rossiya v global’noi politike, 2014, no. 3, pp.196-203.

6. Global Trends 2015. A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernment Experts. Washington, NIC, 2000. 85 p.

7. Dudina G., Galustyan A. Otkroite, migratsiya [Open, migration]. Available at: http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2806383 (accessed 18.04.2016).

8. Dynkin A. A., ed. Strategicheskii global’nyi prognoz 2030. Kratkii variant [Strategic Global Forecast to 2030. Short Version]. Moscow, Magistr, 2011. 88 p.

9. Klinova M., Sidorova E. Ekonomicheskie sanktsii i ikh vliyanie na khozyaistvennye svyazi Rossii s Evropeiskim soyuzom [Economic Sanctions and EU-Russia Economic Relations]. Voprosy economiki, 2014, no. 12, pp. 67-79.

10. V. Putin. Text of the Statement at a meeting of the Club “Valday”. October 22, 2015 (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2678406 (accessed 07.04.2016).

11. Simoniya N. Moment istiny dlya slantsevoi “revolyutsii” [Moment of Truth for Oil Shale “Revolution”]. Ekspert, 2015, no. 1(929). Available at: http://expert.ru/expert/2015/01/moment-istinyi-dlya-slantsevoj-revolyutsii (accessed 14.04.2016).

12. 4 Major Dangers for Economy in 2015 year (In Russ.). Available at: http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/46807/print (accessed 14.04.2016).

13. Dynkin A. A., ed. Strategicheskii global’nyi prognoz 2030. Rasshirennyi variant. IMEMO RAN [Strategic Global Forecast to 2030. Full Version]. Moscow, Magistr, 2013. 480 p.


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Lukashin Y., Rakhlina L. Global Forecast of US National Intelligence Council. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2016, vol. 60, no. 11, pp. 5-13. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2016-60-11-5-13



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2023, vol. 67, No. 9
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Contradictions and Conflicts in the Multilateral Trading System 
  • Global Climate Agenda: Big Gamble 
  • South Asia in Regional and World Politics 
  • Social Policy and Public Administration Ecosystems
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.