Yu. Lukashin, Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAN), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation (email@example.com)
L. Rakhlina, Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAN), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation (firstname.lastname@example.org)
The paper considers contemporary approaches of long-term forecasting of world and national economics. Foreign practice is of especial interest of authors. Researches and results of PricewaterhouseCoopers and Goldman Sachs are exposed in details. Authors make the following conclusions: a production function model is used often to generate forecasts. The parameters of these models are postulated by experts in coincidence with their scenario of World development. Main indicators to forecast are GDP, GDP per capita and changes in country ranks. Authors consider GDP as not ideal indicator for the goal since it may be calculated by three methods. Besides, it has different structure and quality in different countries. Authors point to the need for estimation and comparison of quality of life. They suggest to take into account the revolutionary changing in technologies and to schedule the optimum and the most realistic path to improve the quality of life. Authors suggest that the most developed countries are entering a new era when robots will work more and more instead of people in industry, agriculture, and services. Many operations in control, management and data processing gain higher productivity due to endless progress in computer science. As a result authors foresee further shortening of the working week. On their opinion this is the way which leads to real success in struggle against unemployment. ICT technologies enable many employees to work now at home. Growing of spare time leads to new pattern of life, new possibilities of education, new types of creative work, new possibilities of communication, additional possibilities for health care, high level of life quality. So far, comparison of national economy development on the basis of measuring GDP seems to become obsolete and irrelevant to current social and economic conditions. Now we can expect to see negative rates of GDP growth and augmentation of life quality. Thus, to construct the countries’ ranks in world competition correctly it is of great importance to take into account the social factors and the role of innovation technologies in world economic development.
world economy, long-term forecasting, production function, expert’s estimates, foresight method, cross-country comparisons, economic development
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