Geo-Strategic Considerations on Kondratieff Cycles, Globalization and Wars

DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2012-10-105-114

A. Taucsh, Corvinus University of Budapest (Hungary); University of Innsbruck (Leopold-Franzens-Universität Innsbruck), Innrain, 52, A-6020, Innsbruck (

Abstract. Adherents of the Marxian and other political economy schools that are the alternatives to the now dominating mainstream always insisted that the contradictions of global capitalism only exacerbate over time if markets are left to themselves. The author’s analysis is based on the use of modern statistical methods. In addition to common perceptions it adds the following proposal: there are serious cyclical fluctuations of the capitalist system on a global scale. Economic ups and downs are accompanied by global political and military-strategic development cycles of public systems. Finally, there is a striking similarity in the logic of globalization of the second half of XIX century and the globalization of the modern era. At the beginning of the XX century some major economists, such as R. Luxembourg and O. Bauer noted the increasing instability of the international order and saw on the horizon dark clouds of wars inside the capitalist system (First and Second World Wars). In the light of the author’s analysis a sad conclusion is made that we are facing equally gloomy times if we fail to adjust the mad logic called modern globalization.

Keywords: world system, Kondrat’ev cycles, globalization, economic growth, inequality, military-strategic cycles, statistical analysis

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For citation:
Taucsh A. Geo-Strategic Considerations on Kondratieff Cycles, Globalization and Wars. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2012, no. 10, pp. 105-114.

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