Abstract. The conflict in Ukraine is in an active phase, and over the past few years (at least since February 2022, and in fact since February 2014), it has been a direct clash between Russia and Western countries (with Ukraine acting as a Western proxy). In the United States and especially in Europe, the "war party" and the pro-Ukrainian lobby have strong positions. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that in Europe and, to some extent, in the United States, the elites are still politically incapable of accepting a “defeat of Ukraine,” which they define as a peace agreement “on Vladimir Putin's terms.” In previous years, significant stakes were made in supporting the regime in Kyiv. Narratives have been created that have exaggerated the conflict to an existential level, pitting it against the forces of “absolute evil” in a dichotomous struggle between “democracy” and “authoritarianism”. At the same time, the change of the U.S. administration has led to the emergence of completely new factors that are influencing the course and outcome of the conflict, and their impact cannot be ignored. These factors include the shift in priorities of the U.S. administration and the unique political style of President Donald Trump have created a political context that has encouraged a shift towards a political solution to the conflict. However, it is unlikely that a comprehensive agreement will be reached quickly due to the significant differences in the positions of the parties involved. This is particularly true for Russia and Ukraine, which is being supported by European countries and the EU leadership. Under these conditions, it is difficult to imagine the success of a conflict resolution through negotiations in 2026, despite the desire of the US presidential administration to put an end to the conflict until the November 2026 elections and use the freed-up resources for other foreign policy objectives.