Abstract. The article analyzes results of the events in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone from 2020 to 2023, as well as their reflection in works of political scientists. The study is based on analysis of open sources with expert assessments and judgments, as well as on works in international relations theory. Main conclusion is drawn about reasons that may cause inaccuracies in political forecasting. The factors that had a negative impact on the consistency of forecasts of development of the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh are determined. Those are the following: obvious abstraction from the position of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, inattention to processes taking place within Azerbaijani society, emotional involvement of a part of expert community in conflict interaction, difficulties in accurate defining Armenia's goals regarding Nagorno-Karabakh during the mentioned period.