Abstract. The article attempts to identify some, in the author's opinion, most important factors that underlie the so-called second Karabakh war and its consequences for the geopolitical prospects of Armenia, Azerbaijan and the entire South Caucasus. The main attention is focused on the reasons for the victory of Azerbaijan and the catastrophic defeat of Armenia. It is shown that with all possible reservations in this matter, one of the main beneficiaries of the conflict was Russia, which, under the auspices of the peacekeeping forces, returned its military units to the territory formally under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan for at least five years.