Mutual Trade of EAEU Member States and Their Currency Exchange Rates

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Mutual Trade of EAEU Member States and Their Currency Exchange Rates
// Russia and New States of Eurasia. 2018. No 4. P. 81-95

DOI: 10.20542/2073-4786-2018-4-81-95


Abstract

The article analyses results of EAEU member-countries’ mutual trade compared to the period prior to the formation of the EAEU. The analysis reveals that the pre-sent level of their mutual trade is still lower that it was before the establishment of this Union. The same is true also for the size of their mutual trade being lower now than it was 15 years ago. The only exception is Armenia whose share of exports and imports to and from EAEU member states in its aggregate foreign  trade has increased since the formation of the EAEU. Also a hypothesis of a possible influence of the member-countries’ exchange-rate fluctuations on the dynamics of their mutual trade in non-fuel goods was examined. Author concludes that there is no firm evidence of such influence as in 1995–2017 in the overwhelming majority of analyzed cases member-countries’ mutual exports and imports either simultaneously grew or simultaneously decreased (although at a different rate). Only one third of all such cases were in counter phases (growth – decrease), but in these episodes their correspondence or contradiction to exchange rate dynamics was approxi-mately equal. 


Keywords

Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), mutual trade of EAEU member-countries, exchange rates of  EAEU member-countries 


Text 

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For citation:
Polivach A. Mutual Trade of EAEU Member States and Their Currency Exchange Rates. Russia and New States of Eurasia, 2018, No 4, pp. 81-95. https://doi.org/10.20542/2073-4786-2018-4-81-95



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