Afontsev Sergey
World crisis: paradoxes of analysis and scenario options for development // Population and Economics : e-journal. 2020. Vol. 4, Issue 2. P. 153-157. DOI 10.3897/popecon.4.e54379. URL: https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/54379/. Date of publication: 01.06.2020.
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DOI 10.3897/popecon.4.e54379

During the period of global crises, economists often form the belief that the current shocks are unique and after them “the world economy will no longer be the same”. At first glance, the current crisis gives every reason for similar generalizations. However, the analysis shows that both the crisis deployment mechanisms and the factors of its exacerbation demonstrate a high degree of continuity with previous episodes of crisis dynamics. This means that getting out of crisis will also be not a unique challenge, but a task closely linked to previous global experience of anti-crisis policy. Calculations show that the depth of the economic recession in the Russian Federation can be about one and a half times higher than the expected rate of decline in the global economy, and real population income in 2020 under a negative scenario can decrease by more than 10%. This means that the income support should become one of the top priorities of the anti-crisis policy in Russia. Ignoring it can not only make the crisis deeper but also bring give to problems in the socio-political sphere.


Keywords: world economy | global crisis | coronavirus | GDP | protectionism | oil prices | Russia | population income |

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