Kopytin Ivan, Maslennikov Alexander, Sinitsyn Mikhail, Zhukov Stanislav , Zolina Svetlana
Will carbon tax constrain oil production in anada? // Solovev D. (ed.) Smart Technologies and Innovations in Design for Control of Technological Processes and Objects: Economy and Production. FarEaston 2018. SIST book series. Springer, Cham. 2020. Vol. 138. . 793-803. DOI 10.1007/978-3-030-15577-3_73.
Publication Type:
Rubric:


DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-15577-3_73

The article aims to assess how introduction of carbon tax will impact oil production in Canada in the long run. Two oil exporting countries, Norway and Canada, introduced carbon tax in 1991 and 2018 respectively. In Norway carbon tax has not constrained oil production and development of costly hydrocarbon reserves in the Arctic areas. We build a simple econometric model for Canada's oil demand and supply until 2040 in reference and low carbon scenarios. Carbon tax is explicitly inbuilt into the model based on the assumption that producers fully pass costs of carbon tax onto consumers of petroleum products. Demand is modelled bottom-up individually for economic sectors, including road transport, air transport, marine and water transport, industry, commercial sector, etc. On the basis of modelling results we argue that in the projection period carbon tax will have a minor constraining impact on oil production growth in Canada. Demand for petroleum products will contract more deeply compared to crude oil production. The continuously increasing export orientation of the Canadian oil sector will partially shield it from the carbon tax. Given the global advancement of low carbon paradigm, analysis of Norway and Canada experience with carbon tax is crucially important for all large oil producing countries.

Historical statistical data for the model was accumulated from the databases of Canada’s National Energy Board (NEB), International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United Nations (UN), International Labour Organization (ILO), International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) and the World Bank.


Keywords: Carbon tax | Canada | Oil production | Oil consumption | Low carbon paradigm | Stranded assets | Unburnable oil |

Russian Science Citation Index



OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC

Kopytin Ivan, Maslennikov Alexander, Zhukov Stanislav
Europe in World Natural Gas Market: International Transmission of European Price Shocks // International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 2022. Vol. 12, Issue 3. P. 8-15. DOI 10.32479/ijeep.12941.

Zhukov Stanislav , Reznikova Oksana
Energy Transition in the United States, Europe and China: Latest Trends // Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2023. Vol. 34, Issue 4. P. 439-449. DOI 10.1134/S1075700723040160.

Anosov Boris
Activating Consumer Demand as a Key to Successful Development of the PRC Economy // Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2021. Vol. 32, Issue 6. P. 705-711. DOI 10.1134/S1075700721060022.

Kuznetsov Alexey
Framework for the Analysis of Geography of Transnational Corporations Investments Abroad. [Text] / A.V. Kuznetsov // Baltic Region = Baltijskij Region. 2016. 3. P. 22 32.

Nikitina Elena , Pusenkova Nina
Petroleum CSR in Russia: Affordable Luxury or Basic Necessity? [Text] / N. Poussenkova, E. Nikitina // Russian analytical digest. 2016. 181. P. 3 7.

Varnavskii Vladimir
Analysing the dynamics of the Baltic Statess production linkages with Russia // Baltic Region. 2022. Vol. 14, Issue 2. P. 4-22. DOI 10.5922/2079-8555-2022-2-1.

Lomanov Alexander, Yan Xiao
Chinas Theoretical Innovation and Economic Policy in the New Era // World Socialism Studies : ISSN 2096-2630. 2021. Issue 3. P. 14-19, 89.

Pusenkova Nina
Arctic Offshore Oil in Russia: Optimism, Pessimism and Realism // : , , . 2021. Vol. 14, Special Issue. P. 62-80. DOI 10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-5-86-108.

Subbotin Mikhail
/ .. // . 2011. 2. . 1013.

Kudrov Valentin
/ .. // . 2012. 3. . 6576.

Tsapenko Irina
Forced Mobility and Immobility in a Turbulent World // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021. Vol. 91, Issue 5. P. 525-534. DOI 10.1134/S1019331621050099.

Kuznetsov Alexey
Russian Direct Investment as a Factor of Eurasian Integration [Text] / Aleksei Kuznetsov // Problems of Economic Transition. 2016. 4. P. 348 361.

Klinova Marina
The Transformation of State Enterprises in Russian Networks, 1990-2005 / Transforming public enterprise in Europe and North America: networks, integration and transnationalisation. Ed. by J. Clifton, F. Comín, D. Díaz-Fuentes. London: PALGRAVE MACMILLAN, 2007. - P. 157-171.

Volodin Andrey
Russia: late take off society in the whirlwind of world politics // World Affairs. 2021. Vol. 25, Issue 2. P. 48-69.

Huntington H., Olsen J., Zagorskii Andrei
Effects of Arctic commercial shipping on environments and communities: context, governance, priorities // Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2023. Vol. 118, Art. 103731. DOI 10.1016/j.trd.2023.103731.

J. Lussange, Belyanin Alexei, S. Bourgeois-Gironde, B. Gutkin
Learning and cognition in financial markets: A paradigm shift for agent-based models. Intelligent Systems Conference, IntelliSys 2020. London; United Kingdom, 3-4.09.2020 // Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing (AISC) book series. 2021. Vol. 1252 : Intelligent Systems and Applications. P. 241-255. DOI 10.1007/978-3-030-55190-2_19.

Volodin Andrey
External challenges as a driving force of domestic development // World Affairs. Vol. 23, 4. P. 10-31.

Artamonova Uliana
Popcorn Diplomacy: American Blockbusters and World Order // Russia in Global Affairs. 2022. Vol. 20, Issue 2. P. 105-128. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2022-20-2-105-128.

Dynkin Alexander , Pantin Vladimir
A Peaceful Clash. The US and China: Which Model Holds Out Promise for the Future? [Text] / A. Dynkin, V. Pantin // World Futures: The Journal of Global Education. 2012. V.68. Issue 7. P. 506 517.

Bubnova Natalia
Total Sanctions in the Context of Integrated Deterrence: Western Countries Response to Russias Special Military Operation in Ukraine // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2022. Vol. 92, Issue Suppl. 13. S1230S1239. DOI 10.1134/S1019331622190054.
Related publications


Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







First news
Institute News
26/02/2024

The Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences held an expert meeting with the University of Mumbai and Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in Mumbai.

more...

26/02/2024

Based on the materials of the report at the Academic Council of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, the International Conference at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia in the journal “International Trends” an article was published (co-authored) by Elena Sidorova “EU Strategic Autonomy in the Economy. The Concept and Problems of Implementation".

more...

Recently Published