Surkov Nikolay
The Second Wave of Arab Revolutions Reached an Impasse
Publication Type:

ISSN 0869-1908

DOI 10.31857/S086919080014800-7

This article deals with the distinctive features of the second wave of mass protests in the Arab world, which is also sometimes called the "Arab Spring 2.0". By analyzing the experience of three countries (Algeria, Iraq, Sudan) the author attempts to identify the factors which determine the success or failure of the popular revolutions. The author examines the role of the following factors: the position of the military, the level of activity of civil society, the behavior of the elites, the impact of external forces. The cases of Algeria and Iraq demonstrate that the inability of civil society to self-organize and the passivity of external forces lead to the so-called "stillborn" revolutions. In Algeria, the massive protests led to only cosmetic changes, since the opposition did not formulate a positive program and did not nominate leaders who could negotiate with the old elite. Iraq also lacks the counter-elite necessary for a successful transition, protesting youth do not have a common vision of the country's future, the authorities actively use violence, and external players are passive or support the government. Such combination makes political transit in Iraq unlikely, but conditions for a permanent "revolutionary situation" will remain. The Sudanese case is an example of a successful popular revolution. It demonstrated that a well-organized civil society, with active external support, can initiate regime change. However, the process of democratic transition in this country is threatened due to the inability of the new leaders to reign in the security forces, to implement the reforms and create new effective institutions. The author comes to the conclusion that in the majority of Arab states there are still no forces capable of competing with authoritarian regimes, because their emergence takes time and resources.

Keywords: Arab Spring | democratization | Algeria | Iraq | Sudan | protests |

Russian Science Citation Index


Malysheva Dina
Монархии Персидского залива и «арабская весна» / Д.Б. Малышева // Международная жизнь. – 2012. – № 8. – С. 41–53.

Mirskii Georgy
«Арабская весна» – туман и тревога [Текст] / Г.И. Мирский // Россия в глобальной политике. – 2013. – Т. 11. – № 2. – С. 45 – 56.

Ivanov Stanislav
«The Arabian spring» proceeds / IVANOV Stanislav

Ivanov Stanislav
Международная обстановка на Ближнем Востоке и ее влияние на безопасность в регионе [Текст] / С.М. Иванов// Зарубежное военное обозрение. – 2018. – № 3 (852). – С. 3-12

Ivanov Stanislav
Radical Islamists as a threat of the regional and international security // Diplomatic Service - 2016. – № 5 (68). – P. 38-47

Mirskii Georgy
The Arab World: No More Fear, No More Lies / Mirskiy Georgy

Mirskii Georgy
How Iraq Will Fail to Collapse.

Davydov Alexey
Дезинтеграционная демократизация? Роль «продвижения демократии» в процессе дезинтеграции Ирака [Текст] / А.А. Давыдов // Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология. – 2017. – № 1. – С. 73-86.

Frolov Alexander
Арабские ставки Пекина // Обозреватель-Observer. 2023. № 2. С. 25-35. DOI 10.48137/2074-2975_2023_2_25.

Ivanov Stanislav
Where does the middle East “Arab spring”? / Ivanov S.M.

Trubnikov Vyacheslav
Там, где "весной" пока еще не веет. Мысли вслух после прочтения книги Эльдара Касаева о Катаре [Текст] / В.И. Трубников // Международная жизнь. – 2015. – №  5. – С. 174 – 179.

Grigoriev Leonid, Subhankulova R.R.
The price of development and consequences of «the arabian spring» 2010–2012 / Grigoriev L. M., Subhankulova R.R.

Ivanov Stanislav
Осторожно! Ближний Восток // Новый оборонный заказ. Стратегии. 2024. № 3 (84). С.31-39.

Kamkin Alexander
Middle-Eastern vector of German foreign policy (2010–2022)

Svistunova Irina, Bogacheva Anastasia
Foreign policy of Iran and Turkey towards Arab States after the Arab Spring

Rogozhina Natalia
What awaits the democratic opposition in Thailand?

Surkov Nikolay
Алжир и великие державы // Свободная мысль. 2023. № 4 (1700). С. 99-112. DOI 10.24412/0869-4435-2023-41700-99-112.

Kholodkovskii Kirill
Антикризисные меры и общество / К.Г. Холодковский // Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз (Журнал политической философии и социологии политики). – 2009. – Т. 54. – № 3. – С. 58–75.

Borisova Alexandra
Человек в американских теориях принятия политических решений [Текст] / А.Р. Борисова // Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология. – 2017. – № 3. – С. 25–40.

Ivanov Stanislav
Радикальный ислам как угроза международной безопасности [Текст] / С.М. Иванов // Зарубежное военное обозрение. – 2015. – № 1 (814). – С. 22 – 26.
Related publications

Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment

First news
Institute News

The next issue of the MEMO Journal (No. 7 for 2024) opens with the topical rubric "Security Problems in the Modern World", which features articles by A. Arbatov "The Bearing Structure of Global Security" and A. Krivopalov "The Southern Flank of U.S. Deployment in Eastern Europe".



On July 8, 2024, the Center of the Indo-Pacific Region of IMEMO will hold a Roundtable "From Modi 2.0 to Modi 3.0".


Recently Published