Zhukova Tatiana
Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008
Publication Type:


ISSN 2542-0240

DOI: 10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-6-6

The article puts forward the hypothesis about the wave nature of pension systems reforms since the early 1990 under the effect of demographic and economic factors. In response to the results of previous works on this subject and statistical analysis results, wave’s mechanism has been identified. Conditions for starting the wave of pension reforms established with long-term demographic trend in periods of tension (the higher growth rates of age dependency ratio and others). The start and dynamic of the wave are determined by macroeconomic shocks arise from decreasing phase of business-cycle. The growth phase of pension reforms are followed by the period of deceleration. There is a factor that slowdowns responses to macroeconomic shocks (the decisions about pension reforms are not accepted instantly). Pension system adjusts to new conditions until further tightening. Quantitative and quality analysis of pension reforms across countries would allow to test this hypothesis. To that end an appropriate instruments have been developed: the classifier of pension reform (67 items with scoring system to estimate the depth of the changes), evaluation system for economic factors influences via sensitive to pension systems indicators and associated macroeconomic shocks. A cross-section of 24 countries generates a mix of pension reforms for the period of 1994–2019, two waves of pension reforms (1990–2008 and 2009 – present) is revealed, the hypothesis of waves nature of pension reforms is confirmed. The heart of pension systems transformations in the first way is identified. These are lowering of government pensions obligations, shifting the risks from state to population with the introduction of DCschemes. The suggestions that the implementation of second pillar is positive only for countries with well-developed financial market.  The research of second-wave of pension reforms and projection of the third way will be dealt with in the next article.


Keywords: pension systems | pension reforms | waves | cycles | macroeconomic shocks | structural reforms | parametric reforms |

Russian Science Citation Index



OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC

Zhukova Tatiana
Global transformations of pension systems at the turn of the century - 1994-2008

Zeveleva Galina
Реформы Барака Обамы в сферах здравоохранения и образования / Г.Н. Зевелева // Международная экономика. – 2010. – № 12. – С. 40–49.

Pantin Vladimir
Циклы реформ – контрреформ в России и их связь с циклами мирового развития / В.И. Пантин // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2011. – № 6. – С. 22–31.

Zhukova Tatiana
The Second Wave of Pension Reforms (2009–2019): Transformation of Pension Systems Projection

Kulakova Vasilisa
Результаты и перспективы финансовой реформы в США [Текст] / В.К. Кулакова // США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура. – 2014. – № 9. – С. 49 – 58.

Gontmakher Evgeniy
Crossroads of Pension Reform // Journal of the New Economic Association, 2012, № 3 (15). P. 168 –171.

Kudrov Valentin
Russia and China: whose economic reforms more effective?

Pusenkova Nina
Реформы не для проформы: трансформация национальных нефтяных компаний [Текст] / Н.Н. Пусенкова // Энергетическая политика. – 2014. – № 4. – С. 61 – 74.

Semenenko Irina
Evolutionary cycles and problems of forecasting political changes. – Polis. Political Studies. 2015. No 1. P. 173-178.

Zeveleva Galina
Основные направления политики администрации Обамы в социальной сфере / Г.Н. Зевелева // Международная экономика. – 2012. – № 6. – С. 76–85.

Pusenkova Nina
Реформируй или проиграешь [Текст] / Н.Н. Пусенкова // Нефть России. – 2015. – № 3. – С. 22 – 29.

Vasil'ev Victor
EU Reforms: Concepts and Reality / Vasilyev V.I. // Observer. - 2019. - № 7. - P. 5 - 23.

Kulakova Vasilisa
Difficulties of the Financial Reform in the USA / Kulakova Vasilisa

Klinova Marina
The role of State in France Economy: test for Coronavirus

Klinova Marina
La privatisation en Russie / M.V. Klinova // La Revue du Trésor. – 2004. – 84e année . – No 12. – P. 749-751.

Varnavskii Vladimir , Dunaev B., Kirilenko L.
Cycles in the Russian Economy

Nozdrev Stanislav
Nozdrev S.V. A new stage in the formation of financial markets in Asian countries. Analytical report – Moscow, IMEMO, 2018. – 83 p.

Dezhina Irina,
Наука в новой России: кризис, помощь, реформы. Ростов н/Д, Изд-во ЮФУ, 2009, 240 с.

Salitskii Alexander
Can we speak of a new social formation in China?

Prokhorenko Irina
Политические аспекты реформы финансового регулирования в Испании / И.Л. Прохоренко // Вестник МГИМО -университета. – 2012. – № 1. – С. 149–155.
Related publications


Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







First news
Institute News
10/06/2022

The next issue of the journal ME & MO (No. 6, 2022), which opens with a panoramic article by V. Mikheev and S. Lukonin, has been published. The authors dedicated it to China on the eve of the 20th CPC Congress. In the economic block of the magazine special attention is paid to digital currencies.

more...

09/06/2022

An article by Marina Klinova «The State and Energy Security in the World and Europe as a Public Good» was published in the June issue of the journal «Voprosy Ekonomiki» ("Economic Issues") under the heading "International Economics" (in Russian).

more...

Recently Published