Rastol'tsev Sergey
Влияние локальных затяжных конфликтов на постсоветском пространстве на режим контроля над вооружениями в Европе // Анализ и прогноз. Журнал ИМЭМО РАН : сетевой журнал. 2020. № 2. С. 76-86. DOI 10.20542/afij-2020-2-76-86. URL: https://www.afjournal.ru/index.php?page_id=286 (дата обращения: 15.10.2020).
Publication Type:
Rubric:


ISSN 2713-170X

DOI 10.20542/afij-2020-2-76-86

The article is devoted to the analysis of the mutual influence and interrelationship of two European security challenges - the unresolved protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space and the conventional arms control (CAC) in Europe. The impossibility to account for and verify arms in the conflict “grey zones”, creating local exceptions from this regime, has led to the fact that the problem of unsettled protracted conflicts has always remained on the agenda of the modern CAC regime in Europe since the early 1990s. However, over the past three decades, the dynamics of their mutual influence have gradually changed. The author identifies three conditional stages in the development of this process. At the first stage, in the 1990s, unresolved conflicts proved to be one of the major problems for the renewed and emerging CAC regime in Europe; nevertheless, the dynamics of its development were positive overall. At the second stage - in the 2000s - when the need for the regime transformation increased, conflicts became a significant obstacle to its reform and it went into a state of stagnation. Finally, since the late 2000s, with the development of erosion processes in the CAC regime itself, when its key mechanisms, such as the CFE Treaty, became ineffective, the European security system climate has deteriorated and the protracted conflicts proved increasingly difficult to resolve. That is, if at first conflicts were a problem for the CAC regime, then the opposite effect has emerged and the crisis of the regime itself has started to affect the resolution of conflicts. Besides, already under the conditions of the CAC regime degradation and the general crisis of the European security, a new serious conflict has started in Ukraine, which later entered a protracted phase, including due to the loss of trust and the impossibility to organize arms control on the territory of the conflict. Paradoxically enough, arms control has proven to be ineffective and inoperative exactly where it is needed most - in conflict regions. As a result, such exceptions in the CAC have undermined this regime from the very beginning, and with the Ukrainian conflict they have become even more numerous. The arms control regime main function of reducing tension and maintaining military and political stability has been impaired. To overcome this systemic crisis, comprehensive solutions are needed to provide for the arms control even in protracted conflicts and mitigate the contradictions around their unresolved status, for example, in the form of a status-neutral arms control.


Keywords: European Security | Protracted Conflicts | Conventional Arms Control (CAC) in Europe | Post-Soviet Space | Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) | CFE Adaptation Agreement (ACFE) | NATO | Status-Neutral Arms Control |

Russian Science Citation Index



OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC

Bogdanov Konstantin
Фактор ПРО в Европе: противоречия и кризис режимов контроля над вооружениями [Текст] / К. В. Богданов // Европейская безопасность: события, оценки, прогнозы. – 2018. – № 50 (66). – С. 5-8.

Oznobishchev S.
American (Russian) roller coaster of the European security

Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security / IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2010. Edited by A. Kalyadin, A. Arbatov. Moscow: IMEMO RAN, 2011, 138 p.

Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security / IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2012. Edited by A. Kaliadine, A. Arbatov. Moscow: IMEMO RAN, 2013, 200 p.

Россия: контроль над вооружениями и международная безопасность (на англ. языке). Отв. ред. В.Г. Барановский, А.Н. Калядин. М., ИМЭМО РАН, 2001, 41 п.л.

Ivanov Stanislav
Международные аспекты Сирийского кризиса. Глава в монографии, cc. 175–188: Безопасность и контроль над вооружениями 2017-2018: Преодоление разбалансировки международной стабильности. Отв. ред.: А.Г. Арбатов, Н.И. Бубнова. – М.: ИМЭМО РАН; Политическая энциклопедия, 2018. – 270 с.


Новая администрация США и будущий контроль над вооружениями. М., Московский центр Карнеги, т. 3, вып. 2, 2001.

Ежегодник СИПРИ 1999 «Вооружения, разоружение и международная безопасность» со Специальным приложением ИМЭМО РАН: пер. с англ. М.: Наука, 2000, 62,5 п.л.

Arms control in the new military-political and technological conditions / ed. by Arbatov A.G. – Moscow, IMEMO, 2020. – 177 p.

Oznobishchev S.
Отношения Россия-НАТО: деградация или ревитализация? [Текст] / С. К. Ознобищев // Европейская безопасность: события, оценки, прогнозы. – 2019. – № 54 (70). – С. 2-6.

Разоружение и безопасность 1999/2000. Россия: среда безопасности в конце XX века. Ответственный редактор Арбатов А.Г. Ежегодник ИМЭМО РАН . М., Наука, 2000,280 с.

Ежегодник СИПРИ 2010 «Вооружения, разоружение и международная безопасность» со Специальным приложением ИМЭМО РАН : пер. с англ. М.: ИМЭМО РАН, 2011, 768 с.

Ежегодник СИПРИ 2009 «Вооружения, разоружение и международная безопасность» со Специальным приложением ИМЭМО РАН : пер. с англ. М.: ИМЭМО РАН, 2010, 733 с.

Prospects for Arms Control, Disarmament and Nonproliferation: 70 Years after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki Atomic Bombings / A.I. Nikitin, P.A. Korzun, eds. – Moscow, IMEMO, 2016. – 126 p.

Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security / IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2007 Compiled and edited by A. Kaliadine, A. Arbatov. Moscow: IMEMO RAN, 2008, 121 p.

SIPRI Yearbook 2011 “Armaments, Disarmament and International Security” with the special supplement from IMEMO RAN. Edited by Aleksey G. Arbatov. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2012, 770 p.

Bogdanov Konstantin
Контроль гибридной эпохи // Россия в глобальной политике. 2021. Т. 19, № 5 (111). С. 122-136. DOI 10.31278/1810-6439-2021-19-5-122-136.

Pathways to Peace and Security. No. 2 (43). Executive Editor L.G. Istyagin. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2012, 150 p.

Mizin Victor, Sevostyanov P., Matyukhin A.
Key steps towards arms control in Europe

Stefanovich Dmitry
Proliferation and threats of reconnaissance-strike systems: a Russian perspective // Nonproliferation Review. 2020. DOI 10.1080/10736700.2020.1795370. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10736700.2020.1795370?journalCode=rnpr20. Published online: 24.08.2020.
Related publications


Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







First news
Institute News
14/04/2024

Ivan Zaitsev gave a video lecture as part of the series of programs "Influence of Buddhism on Myanmar Politics" on the YouTube channel "Proshloe: Historical Journal".

more...

12/04/2024

On April 12, 2024, the RIAC website published an article by Gleb Makarevich, Junior Research Fellow of the Center of the Indo-Pacific Region, “Sabre Dance: What Goals India and Pakistan Pursue in the South Caucasus”.

more...

Recently Published