Varnavskii Vladimir , Dunaev B., Kirilenko L.
Cycles in the Russian Economy
Publication Type:

ISSN 2587-9111

DOI: 10.12737/article_5b6d8ab4d3a491.66894113

The article describes the author’s approach to the creation of a macroeconomic discrete dynamic model. We derive recurrence relations that connect the main macroeconomic indicators (GDP, capital, investment, employment, unemployment, the amount of money in circulation, inflation, and others). Equilibrium equations are obtained. Calculations for the Russian economy since the crisis of 2009 were carried out. It is shown that in the rising wave of Kondratieff in the Russian economy, there were significant reserves of real GDP growth in terms of industrial capital, a decrease in the material consumption and an increase in the number of people employed in production. Capital is undervalued by 2.5 times, so money in circulation is serviced to a large extent only by market turnover, not ensuring the full reproduction of capital. It is concluded that state accounting and a steady increase in capital can allow a significant mitigation of the negative phenomena of the downward wave of Kondratieff. Fluctuations in the growth of real GDP with the cycles of Juglar and Kitchin under the state regulation of consumer demand on the basis of the current market conditions and the conjuncture of risks and incentives are also possible without economic downturns.

Russian Science Citation Index


Khoros Vladimir
На пути к большой концепции прогнозирования [Текст] / В.Г. Хорос // Экономические стратегии. – 2015. – Т. 17. – №  4 (130). – С. 126 – 133. – Рец. на кн.: Историческое прогнозирование в XXI веке: циклы Кондратьева, эволюционные циклы и перспективы мирового развития. /В.И. Пантин, В.В. Лапкин. – М.: Феникс+ , 2014. – 456 с.

Tatuzov Viktor
Анализ притока ПИИ в экономику России с учетом ряда глобальных тенденций // Экономические стратегии. 2021. Т. 23, № 5 (179). С. 96-101. DOI 10.33917/es-5.179.2021.96-101.

Semenenko Irina
Evolutionary cycles and problems of forecasting political changes. – Polis. Political Studies. 2015. No 1. P. 173-178.

Tatuzov Viktor
Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Policy (Based on Examples of Certain Countries)

Tatuzov Viktor
Динамика ПИИ: анализ и прогнозирование // Научные труды Вольного экономического общества России. 2023. Т. 240, № 2. С. 66-86. DOI 10.38197/2072-2060-2023-240-2-66-86.

Tatuzov Viktor
Прямые иностранные инвестиции и западноевропейская интеграция: некоторые циклические факторы // Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика. 2021. № 3. С. 3-19.

Lapkin Vladimir , Pantin Vladimir
Историческое прогнозирование в XXI веке: Циклы Кондратьева, эволюционные циклы и перспективы мирового развития. Дубна: Феникс+, 2014, 456 с.

Tatuzov Viktor
Contemporary global economic crisis: Some conclusions for Russia and BRICS (taking into account Kondratieff long waves) // BRICS Journal of Economics : electronic journal. 2020. Vol. 1, Issue 2. P. 25-40. DOI 10.38050/2712-7508-2020-8. URL: (accessed date: 14.09.2020).

Osadchaya Irina
Инфляция: причины и способы противодействия / И.М. Осадчая // Человек и труд. – 2008. – № 4. – С. 52–57.

Pantin Vladimir
Циклы реформ – контрреформ в России и их связь с циклами мирового развития / В.И. Пантин // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2011. – № 6. – С. 22–31.

Zhukova Tatiana
The Second Wave of Pension Reforms (2009–2019): Transformation of Pension Systems Projection

Pantin Vladimir
Cycles and Waves of the Global History: Globalization in Terms of History. Moscow, Novyi Vek Publishers, 2003.

Klinova Marina
State and Business Interaction: Survey of Economics and Policy Through Time // Economic Strategies. – 2016. - N 4 (138). – P. 186-197.

Fedorovsky Aleksander
Inflation in the Context of Restructuring the South Korean Economy

Zhukova Tatiana
Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008

Klinova Marina
State and Private Capital (in Political Economy of F. List & in Conditions of 21-st Century) / Klinova Marina // Contemporary Europe. – 2009. – No 1. – P. 87-103.

Khudyakova Ludmila, Polivach Alexander
Exported and Imported Inflation in Open Economies

Volodin Andrey
Логика направляемого развития в постколониальной Индии [Текст] / А. Г. Володин // Вестник Российской академии наук. – 2018. – № 1. – С. 79-87. DOI: 10.7868/S0869587318010103.

Klinova Marina, Sidorova Elena
Economic Sanctions and EU—Russia Economic Relations // Voprosy Economiki. – 2014. – № 12. – P. 67-79.

Volkov Aleksei
Economic relations between Russia and Sweden
Related publications

Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment

First news
Institute News

The Discussion Forum "European Union in a Polycentric World" held a Seminar "Multilateral Nuclear World".



On February 16, 2024, the 76th session of the Scientific and Practical Seminar "The Caucasus in the Past and Present (Society and Politics, Economy and Culture)" was held, dedicated to the novelties of the Caucasian study literature.


Recently Published