Varnavskii Vladimir , Dunaev B., Kirilenko L.
Cycles in the Russian Economy
Publication Type:


ISSN 2587-9111

DOI: 10.12737/article_5b6d8ab4d3a491.66894113

The article describes the author’s approach to the creation of a macroeconomic discrete dynamic model. We derive recurrence relations that connect the main macroeconomic indicators (GDP, capital, investment, employment, unemployment, the amount of money in circulation, inflation, and others). Equilibrium equations are obtained. Calculations for the Russian economy since the crisis of 2009 were carried out. It is shown that in the rising wave of Kondratieff in the Russian economy, there were significant reserves of real GDP growth in terms of industrial capital, a decrease in the material consumption and an increase in the number of people employed in production. Capital is undervalued by 2.5 times, so money in circulation is serviced to a large extent only by market turnover, not ensuring the full reproduction of capital. It is concluded that state accounting and a steady increase in capital can allow a significant mitigation of the negative phenomena of the downward wave of Kondratieff. Fluctuations in the growth of real GDP with the cycles of Juglar and Kitchin under the state regulation of consumer demand on the basis of the current market conditions and the conjuncture of risks and incentives are also possible without economic downturns.



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