Pantin Vladimir
Russia and the West in the 2020s: The prospects of geopolitical revolution
Publication Type:
Rubric:


DOI: 10.30884/iis/2021.01.02

The present article analyses the main shifts in the global system and in the relations between Russia and the West associated with the start of a new geopolitical and geoeconomic revolution (revolution of the global market). It is shown that the growing tension in the relations between Western countries and Russia are long-term and non-accidental. It is caused primarily by the profound social divisions and domestic political conflict in the USA and in the EU countries; and at a global scale – by economic crises and establishment of the new world order, the shift of the center of economic development from the West to the East. Among the mainstream trends that form the outlines of the new world order are strengthening of China and other Asian countries, the delocalization of the global center of political and economic power, the increasing strife in international relations (in particular, in the relations between the collective West and Russia), and the declining economic and political role of the united Europe. With the account of the previously described interaction between the evolutionary cycles of the world political and economic system and the 36-years cycles of the Russian political history there are revealed the major thresholds in the development of the Western countries and Russia during the 2020s, namely: the period from 2021 to 2022, the period from 2024 to 2025 and from 2029 to 2030. Basing on the correlation of the phases of revolution of the global market as well as on the analysis of current political processes, we make a conclusion that the period from 2021 to 2025 will be especially challenging and full of conflicts; moreover, the domestic political splits in the USA and European countries will provoke regional military and political conflicts between Western states and Russia. We anticipate the reshaping of political systems in Russia and the USA after 2024–2025.


Keywords: evolutionary cycles of the world system | cycles of Russian political history | revolution of the global market | geopolitical shifts | world order | military and political conflicts | USA | EU countries | Russia | China. |



OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC

Pantin Vladimir
Cycles and Waves of the Global History: Globalization in Terms of History. Moscow, Novyi Vek Publishers, 2003.

Pantin Vladimir
Период 2017-2025 гг.: перелом в мировом развитии [Текст] / В.И. Пантин // История и современность. – 2017. – № 1(25). – С. 6-31.

Lapkin Vladimir
Моделирование российской политической истории. Введение в теорию эволюционных циклов автохтонного развития России / В.В. Лапкин // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2011. – № 6. – С. 33–51.

Pantin Vladimir
Циклы реформ – контрреформ в России и их связь с циклами мирового развития / В.И. Пантин // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2011. – № 6. – С. 22–31.

Semenenko Irina
Evolutionary cycles and problems of forecasting political changes. – Polis. Political Studies. 2015. No 1. P. 173-178.

Pantin Vladimir , Lapkin Vladimir
Переходная эпоха 2020-х - 2040-х годов: циклы, сингулярность и альтернативы нежданного будущего // История и современность. 2020. № 1 (35). С. 66-93. DOI 10.30884/iis/2020.01.04.

Khoros Vladimir
На пути к большой концепции прогнозирования [Текст] / В.Г. Хорос // Экономические стратегии. – 2015. – Т. 17. – №  4 (130). – С. 126 – 133. – Рец. на кн.: Историческое прогнозирование в XXI веке: циклы Кондратьева, эволюционные циклы и перспективы мирового развития. /В.И. Пантин, В.В. Лапкин. – М.: Феникс+ , 2014. – 456 с.

Lapkin Vladimir , Pantin Vladimir
Историческая динамика международной рыночной системы: циклы лидерства, геополитическая экспансия и перспективы трансформации мирового порядка [Текст] / В. В. Лапкин, В. И. Пантин // История и современность. – 2019. – № 1. – С. 17-61. DOI: 10.30884/iis/2019.01.02.

Циклы политического развития: прогностический потенциал (сборник статей). Отв. ред.: В.И. Пантин, В.В. Лапкин. М., ИМЭМО РАН, 2010, 103 с.

Kholodkovskii Kirill
Механизм российской цикличности / К.Г. Холодковский // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2011. – № 6. – С. 16–21.

Bogdanov Konstantin
Время ad hoc? [Текст] / К. В. Богданов // Россия в глобальной политике. – 2019. – Т. 17. – № 2. – С. 32-45.

Lapkin Vladimir , Pantin Vladimir
Историческое прогнозирование в XXI веке: Циклы Кондратьева, эволюционные циклы и перспективы мирового развития. Дубна: Феникс+, 2014, 456 с.

Zagladin N., Kucherenko A.
Global Crisis: Reasons, Consequences and Russia (Returning to What’s Been Read).

Lapkin Vladimir
Russia’s Political History and Modern Politics in the Light of Structural-Cyclic Paradigm.

Volodin Andrey
Россия в "свободной геометрии" мировой политики. [Текст] / А.Г. Володин // Геополитический журнал. – 2015. – № 4(11). – С. 6 – 14.

Dynkin Alexander , Telegina Elena
Глобализация и мировой порядок в новых реалиях постковидного мира // Вестник Российской академии наук. 2021. Т. 91, № 7. С. 642-647. DOI 10.31857/S0869587321070033.

Simoniya Nodari
Новый мировой порядок: от биполярности к многополюсности [Текст] / Н.А. Симония, А.В. Торкунов // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2015. – № 3. – С. 27 – 37.

Gadzhiev Kamaludin
Геополитические горизонты России: контуры нового миропорядка. 2-е изд. испр. и доп. М., Экономика, 2011, 479 с.

Varnavskii Vladimir
Growth Factors and Trends of Global Trade

Соболевская А.А., Popov A.
Мировой кризис и «интеллект-революция» / А.А. Соболевская, А.К. Попов // Философия хозяйства. – 2012. – № 2. – С. 127–133.
Related publications


Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







First news
Institute News
10/06/2022

The next issue of the journal ME & MO (No. 6, 2022), which opens with a panoramic article by V. Mikheev and S. Lukonin, has been published. The authors dedicated it to China on the eve of the 20th CPC Congress. In the economic block of the magazine special attention is paid to digital currencies.

more...

09/06/2022

An article by Marina Klinova «The State and Energy Security in the World and Europe as a Public Good» was published in the June issue of the journal «Voprosy Ekonomiki» ("Economic Issues") under the heading "International Economics" (in Russian).

more...

Recently Published