Lukashin Yu., Rakhlina Lyudmila
Пять сценариев мировых тенденций в глобальном прогнозе Национального совета по разведке США до 2040 года // Вестник МИРБИС : сетевое издание. 2021. № 4 (28). С. 6-16. DOI 10.25634/MIRBIS.2021.4.1. URL: https://journal-mirbis.ru/04-2021vm/. Дата публикации: 20.12.2021.
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ISSN 2411-5703

DOI 10.25634/MIRBIS.2021.4.1

The relevance of the article is due to the aggravation of competition in the world market, the gradual transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar one. The article attempts to analyze the main conclusions made in Report 7 NIC (National Intelligence Council), published in March 2021, covering the period up to 2040, mainly by comparison. The forecasts made in the Report allow us to assess the perception of the American leadership about the processes taking place in the world, which, apparently, underlie the long-term planning of the American government. Many of them can be agreed. At the same time, the Report also has a propaganda load, is a means of justifying the actions of the United States in its own interests, a factor in the information war with world competitors and opponents. The technology industry, which includes financial technology, is at the foremost in the forecasts for the next 20 years. First of all, the report says that advances in technology can solve complex problems, including climate change and disease, but can also provoke new tensions. By 2040, advances in new materials combined with smart manufacturing will shut down the production of everything from consumer goods to high-end military systems, cutting costs, expanding opportunities, changing supply chains, and providing entirely new design options. The period of rapid change we are entering is often referred to as the fourth industrial revolution because of its potential to improve living standards, perhaps disrupting traditional industries, jobs, supply chains and business models. At the same time, the Report underestimates the growing power of China, the role of Russia, and the intensification of competition with the EU.


Keywords: world economy | comparison of economic development | international relations | uneven development of economies | multipolar world |

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