Levchenko Anna
Gold Price Forecasts: Majo Price Determinants and Accuracy of the Models
ISSN 2075-1915
Gold Price Forecasts: Majo Price Determinants and Accuracy of the Models
Publication Type:
ISSN 2075-1915
The article covers features of gold as financial asset, pricing centers, peculiarities of price formation on the gold market. The leading role of financial factors is determined. Accuracy of forecasts is estimated (LBMA members, leading forec asting centers in investment banks, World Bank). High error is characteristic for middleand longterm forecasts, which significantly overvalues yearly changes in gold price. Maximum error is attributed to structural model of World Bank. Only for one year forecasts of LBMA error does not exceed midannual gold price changes.
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