Portansky Alexey , Sudakova Yu., Larionov A.
Assumptions of the Global Economic Crisis and Its Inception in the Spring of 2020 Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic // International Organisations Research Journal.. Vol. 15, N 2, pp. 191–212
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DOI: 10.17323/19967845-2020-02-09

Analytical agencie s, as well as international organizations, have identified significant threats to the development of the world economy, increasing the likelihood of a new global financial crisis in late 2020–early 2021. The main challenges to the system come from trade wars that could lead to a crisis in the international system of trade regulation, a decrease in the effectiveness of public policy instruments, and a deterioration in the dynamics of global economic growth. An important factor leading to a slowdown in the global economy in 2020 will also be the coronavirus pandemic, although it is difficult, in the first half of 2020, to assess its final impact. The combination of these negative factors, coupled with the unresolved problems of the 2008 global financial crisis, significantly increases the likelihood of a new global economic crisis which could surpass the Great Depression of the 1930s. This study systematizes the main forecasts by international organizations and analytical agencies for the growth of the world economy and considers various theoretical concepts to identify the symptoms of the impending crisis. Ultimately, this article offers options for reducing the negative impact of the crisis on Russia. In connection with the coronavirus pandemic, preliminary estimates have been made of the likely damage to the world economy and the prospects for its recovery.


Keywords: economic growth | global financial crisis | world economy | world trade | trade wars | theories of economic cycles |



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