Zvyagelskaya Irina
Political Trends in the Middle East: A Glimpse into the Future? // Strategic Assessment : A Multidisciplinary Journal on National Security : ISSN 0793-8950. 2021. Vol. 24, Issue 1. P. 128-135. DOI 10.1177/0735275115572153.
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ISSN 0793-8950

DOI 10.1177/0735275115572153

The primary trends that have emerged in the Middle East in the last decade fall into two interrelated and complementary groups. The first reflects the impact of global trends and the second can be traced to regional currents. The ten years since the Arab Spring have changed the Middle East. The new reality manifests itself in an increased demand for social and economic reforms, which in turn contributes to a high level of internal instability, i.e., to new waves of social unrest. Concern about the US intention to cut back its military commitments has led Arab countries to rely on strategic diversification. They maintain their traditional orientation toward the United States, but at the same time establish ties with Russia and China. To some degree the Arab-Israeli normalization is caused by a search for a new security provider. The Arab Spring has contributed to the rise of regional hegemons—Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia—that have become more assertive in implementing their strategic goals. In fact the local powers, vigorously advancing their agendas, have more often than not overplayed their global partners.


Keywords: trends | conflicts | normalization | regional hegemons | non-state actors | global powers | new bipolarity |



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