The development of import-substituting production is considered a key priority for the Russian economy. The paper estimates the chances to achieve the goals by increasing the production of competitive products of Russian origin. This production in the future will be able to retain the market position at the expense of the optimal for the consumer ratio of price and quality of domestic goods and services. It is shown that a successful policy of import substitution depends on the significant decline of import of goods with a low production capacity and workforce. The dynamics of population income is also important. These assumptions were manifested in the period 1999-2000, but for medium and long-term effect there are needed such factors as access to sources of capital and technology, sufficient capacity of the domestic market and access to government contracts. Despite the significant fall in imports in 2014-2015, the presence of adverse shocks from demand and supply do not contribute to the creation of conditions for import substitution. It is shown that the most favorable conditions for the implementation of projects of import substitution currently exist in metallurgy and agriculture, and the least favorable conditions are typical for machine-building and other manufacturing industries. There are presented calculations by industry according to the baseline and optimistic scenario.