
Опасность фрагментации глобальной экономики нарастает // Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика. 2024. Т. 19, № 2. С. 7-20. DOI 10.17323/1996-7845-2024-02-01.
ISSN 1996-7845
The article examines the reasons for the fragmentation of the world economy and global trade at the beginning of the 21st century. The author explores two aspects of this fragmentation. The first relates to the weakening of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its rule-making function, which has intensified regionalization, as manifested in the emergence of mega trade agreements. Further progress of the latter, while the WTO remains relatively weak, may contribute to the future fragmentation of world trade, from which small developing countries will primarily lose. The second aspect is largely due to the consequences of the financial crisis of 2008–09, which resulted in the desire of key players to create more autonomous national economies and ensure economic security to avoid excessive costs in the event of future crises. This gave rise to talk about strengthening deglobalization trends. The second aspect also includes the U.S.-China trade war with technological decoupling between them, the influence of geopolitical factors on trade, and the impact of industrial policies of large states on trade. The final part of the article provides a brief analysis of the negative impact of fragmentation on the global economy and trade. The author concludes that geo-economic fragmentation poses a real threat to the global economy.
Keywords: Global economy | trade | fragmentation | deglobalization | protectionism | decoupling | US | China |
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