![Научно-технологические траектории: опыт применения социогуманитарных подходов к прогнозированию [Текст] / Н. В. Тоганова, А. Ф. Яковлева // Научно-технические ведомости СПбГПУ. Гуманитарные и общественные науки. – 2019. – Т. 10. – № 3. – С. 40-50. DOI: 10.18721/JHSS.10304.](/dreamedit/pfoto/9F227FE0_540F_1812_5DEA_CE36B46043BC_b.jpg)
Научно-технологические траектории: опыт применения социогуманитарных подходов к прогнозированию [Текст] / Н. В. Тоганова, А. Ф. Яковлева // Научно-технические ведомости СПбГПУ. Гуманитарные и общественные науки. – 2019. – Т. 10. – № 3. – С. 40-50. DOI: 10.18721/JHSS.10304.
ISSN 2304-9758
DOI: 10.18721/JHSS.10304
The article offers socio-humanitarian approaches, connected with the forecasting of the development of scientific and technological trajectories. By scientific and technological trajectories it is customary to understand a certain set of ideas and technologies that arose as a result of an invention or discovery and many possible directions for their further development. It is noted that the interaction of society, nature and technology in modern conditions are characterized by approaching the threshold of qualitative changes, the process of which may turn out to be uncontrollable and irreversible. It is shown that an adequate understanding of those systemic interactions that undergo qualitative changes in connection with the rapid progress of technologies, entailing changes both in society itself and in the course of technology development, is necessary. The basic socio-humanitarian approaches to technological forecasting and technology assessment of that influence the formation of scientific and technological trajectories are presented. The methodological analysis of the science development, along with the socio-humanitarian expertise of the innovations being developed, undoubtedly forms the necessary basis for an effective strategy for managing technological progress, which turns into a task of paramount importance in the face of an increasing variety of risks. It is demonstrated that the proposed models of diffusion of innovations take into account the same factors that are taken into account in the technology assessment and humanitarian expertise combines these two sets of methodological approaches by assessing the role of the state and decision makers, their susceptibility to innovation and diffusion, or, conversely, containing technology. From a theoretical point of view, these findings show that scientific and technological trajectories do not obey “objective” laws, but, on the contrary, are dependent on random factors and, at the same time, on the targeted intervention of state actors and the expert community.
Russian Science Citation Index
OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC
Danilin Ivan
Global Technology Diffusion.
Yevtodyeva Marianna
Japan: New Trends in Research and Development of Defense and Dual-Use Technologies
The Future of Innovations in the US, the EU and Japan (Priorities in Technological Development). Ed. by Dynkin A.A., Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2004.
Shvydko Vitaly
Changes in the system of government support for science and innovation in Japan
Shvydko Vitaly
New five-year plan of scientific and technical development of Japan: new highlights in government policy to promote science and innovations
Danilin Ivan
State and Challenges for the Development of Cooperation in Science and Technology between Russia and China. MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research). 2020;11(4):384-397. https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2020.11.4.384-397
Kostyukova Corinna
Digitalization of the healthcare sector in Japan based on artificial intelligence technology: key problems and solutions
Toganova Natalia , , ,
Технологии и инновации в российских СМИ [Текст] / Н.В. Тихомиров И.А. Тоганова, М.А. Каменская, И.В. Храмоин // Инновации. – 2016. – № 10. – С. 29 – 37.
Toganova Natalia
Features of the German scientific and innovation system
Kutsyna Elena
Системный подход к исследованию инноваций в военно-промышленном комплексе развитых стран / Е.А. Куцына // Вооружение и экономика. – 2011. – № 15. – С. 63-72.
Shvydko Vitaly, Danilin Ivan, Kostyukova Corinna
Политика развития передовых производственных технологий в Японии: вызовы и перспективы [Текст] / К.С. Костюкова, И.В. Данилин, В.Г. Швыдко // Проблемы Дальнего Востока. – 2016. – № 2. – С. 81 – 89.
Khoros Vladimir
На пути к большой концепции прогнозирования [Текст] / В.Г. Хорос // Экономические стратегии. – 2015. – Т. 17. – № 4 (130). – С. 126 – 133. – Рец. на кн.: Историческое прогнозирование в XXI веке: циклы Кондратьева, эволюционные циклы и перспективы мирового развития. /В.И. Пантин, В.В. Лапкин. – М.: Феникс+ , 2014. – 456 с.
Danilin Ivan
Конвергентные (НБИК) технологии: проблемы развития и трансформационный потенциал [Текст] / И.В. Данилин // Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Международные отношения. – 2017. – № 3. – С. 555-567.
Kislitsyn Sergey
Long-Term Forecasting in the US: Institutional Aspect
Danilin Ivan, Tikhomirov I., Devyatkin D.
Analyses and Forecasting of Smart Grid Technological Dynamics
Forecasting long-term trends in the development of the world economy (textbook in Russian) / E.A. Sidorova (ed.). Moscow: Izdatel’stvo Magistr, 2022. – 216 p. – ISBN 978-5-9776-0537-3.
Lukashin Yu.
Эконометрика и прогнозирование. М., Московская международная высшая школа бизнеса МИРБИС (Институт), 2010, 66 с. а.л.
Danilin Ivan
Влияние кризиса на инновационно-технологическое развитие: провал, прорыв, возможность? // Научные труды Вольного экономического общества России. 2020. Т. 225, № 5. С. 201-238. DOI 10.38197/2072-2060-2020-225-5-201-238.
Kondrat’ev Vladimir
Resource-based model of economy modernization
Mamedyarov Zaur
Strategic Role of the Pharmaceutical Industry in the Сontext of the Global Pandemic. Journal of International Analytics. 2020;11(4):122-136.
Related publications






No comments