The forecast for the development of mineral raw materials flow in the Water Area of the Northern Sea Route allows to solve several practical problems that are the constituent parts of the program for accident risk assessment at the industrial facilities. In particular, these are: determination of ship traffic and assessment of the need for the vessels of various deadweight and ice classes, requirements to their equipment; assessment of the need for icebreaking support, construction of rescue vessels, including those equipped for the elimination of emergency oil spills. Also, based on the dynamics of projects development, it is possible to predict the time and place of occurrence of possible emergency technogenic situations for developing preventive environmental measures. Significance of the forecast reliability is determined by the fact that it is the basis for making managerial decisions in the field of sustainable development of the Arctic zone of Russia, which are often very expensive (icebreaker fleet building). The methodical approach is provided concerning compilation of the freight flow forecast based on the assessment of the readiness of the projects transport infrastructure and use of the most reliable sources of data on production levels - agreed projects for the mineral deposits development. The production levels at the fields declared by the companies are analyzed from the standpoint of provision with the current resource base. The forecast is given related to the freight flow for the period up to 2035 for various types of mineral raw materials of 14 projects of the development of mineral resources that determine the freight base of the Northern Sea Route. The level of uncertainty of the forecast made due to internal and external reasons is estimated. The internal causes are connected to the peculiarities of the specific deposit development and the formation of new projects for the development of mineral resources. The external ones are caused by the changes in the world market. The need in updating the forecast on an on-going basis is justified.