Kapelyushnikov Rostislav
Искусственный интеллект и проблема сингулярности в экономике // Вопросы экономики. 2025. № 5. С. 5-45. DOI 10.32609/0042-8736-2025-5-5-45.
Publication Type:


ISSN 0042-8736

Due to the development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the problem of singularity has taken an important place in new studies on economic growth. Many expect that in the coming decades, AI will be able to reach the level of human intelligence and take over all or most of the tasks performed by people today. This will cause an economic growth explosion so that economy could transit into a singularity regime with superexponential growth rates (in the limit, approaching to infinity). The paper examines in detail the arguments both for and against such an over-optimistic scenario. The arguments in its favor are based on the key assumption of endogenous growth models that the ultimate source of economic growth is ideas (scientific and technological knowledge). The basic theoretical counterargument refers to the so-called “Baumol cost disease”, whereby over time the contribution to GDP of sectors with the fastest productivity dynamics steadily decreases. The main empirical counterargument is that if the singularity were already near, the first signs of it would be visible in an unusual behavior of some key macroeconomic parameters. This implies that even if explosive growth ever become a reality, it would happen not soon.


Keywords: automation | artificial intelligence | Baumol cost disease | economic growth | singularity |

Russian Science Citation Index



OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC

Karasev Pavel
Искусственный интеллект как фактор деградации стратегической стабильности // Вестник ученых-международников : электронный журнал. 2023. № 3. С. 249-255.

Romashkina Natalia, Stefanovich Dmitry
Искусственный интеллект и естественная война // Россия в глобальной политике. 2025. Т. 23, № 6 (136). С. 69-83. DOI 10.31278/1810-6439-2025-23-6-69-83.

Romashkina Natalia
Искусственный интеллект в космической индустрии: состояние, проблемы, перспективы // Искусственный интеллект: теория и практика. 2024. № 2. С. 68-77.

Brodskaya Nina
Искусственный интеллект – проблемы безопасности личности // Вопросы политологии . 2022. Т. 12, № 11 (87). С. 3674-3682. DOI 10.35775/PSI.2022.87.11.007.

Selyanin Yaroslav
U.S. Intelligence Community and Artificial Intelligence

Brodskaya Nina
Искусственный интеллект: попытки применения в социальном пространстве и проблемы адаптации // Вопросы политологии. 2020. Т. 10, № 11. С. 3112-3120. DOI 10.35775/PSI.2020.63.11.005.

Brodskaya Nina
Искусственный интеллект: социальные риски и вызовы // Вопросы политологии. 2021. Т. 11, № 10 (74). С. 2738-2743. DOI 10.35775/PSI.2021.74.10.006.

Adno Yuri
Год 2016-й: экономический рост в обход России [Текст] / Ю.Л. Адно // Металлы Евразии. – 2016. – № 1. – С. 8 – 14.

Bardin Andrey, Stomin V.
Artificial intelligence in urban governance: barriers and prospects for implementation

Salitskii Alexander
Inflation and economic growth in the PRC


The role of mining industry in economy

Соболевская А.А., Popov A.
Мировой кризис и «интеллект-революция» / А.А. Соболевская, А.К. Попов // Философия хозяйства. – 2012. – № 2. – С. 127–133.

Vremya E.
ИИ как драйвер экономики Тайваня // Modern Economy Success. 2025. № 1. С. 42-49. DOI 10.58224/2500-3747-2025-1-42-49.

Shultseva Vera
Мировой цифровой ринг: кто победит? Часть 1. [Текст] / В. К. Шульцева // Первая миля. – 2019. – № 4. – С. 76-79. DOI: 10.22184/2070-8963.2019.81.4.76.79.

Sheliubskaya Nataliya
Развитие цифровой экономики Великобритании [Электронный ресурс] / Н. В. Шелюбская // Мировое и национальное хозяйство. – 2018. – № 4(46). – URL: http://mirec.ru/2018-04/the-united-kingdom-digital-economy-development

Zhukova Tatiana
Банковские кризисы и экономический рост в современном мире // Банковские услуги. 2023. № 8. С. 17-24. DOI 10.36992/2075-1915_2023_8_17.

Selyanin Yaroslav
The U.S. National Policy in the Area of Artificial Intelligence: Aims, Objectives and Prospects for Realization

Kanaev Evgeny
Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Vulnerabilities in the ASEAN Economic Community 2025. Outlines of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 18–34 (in Russian)

Sidorova Elena
Anti-crisis programmes in Germany and Great Britain / Sidorova E.A. // World Economics. – 2010. – No 4. – 2010. – P. 29-37.

Kondrat’ev Vladimir
The World Economy under Cheap Oil Prices
Related publications


Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







First news
Institute News
22/01/2026

On January 22, 2026, a Roundtable was held at “Russia Today” International Media Group Press Center within the framework of which the report "Baltic Region: Trends and Risks in Socio-Economic Development and International Security" was presented. It was prepared under the participation of IMEMO in the “Baltic Platform” initiative.

more...

20/01/2026

Alexander Dynkin moderated the presentation of the UN Annual Report "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026" (WESP-2026), prepared by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) in collaboration with the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and five UN regional commissions.

more...

Recently Published