Ирано-Израильский конфликт – одна из главных угроз международной безопасности // Дипломатическая служба. 2024. № 4 (115). С. 327-339. DOI 10.33920 /vne-01-2404-04.
ISSN 2075–4140
DOI 10.33920 /vne-01-2404-04
The article analyzes a brief history of the relationship between two regional powers — Iran and Israel, the roots and causes of their confrontation, and the features of waging the so-called “hybrid war” between them at the present stage. The author pays attention to describing the situation of the relatively small Jewish community of Iran, the activation of all Tehran's proxy forces in the Middle East (Palestinian Hamas, Yemen's Ansar Allah, Lebanese Hezbollah, etc. anti-Israel groups in the region). Particular attention is paid to the fi rst ever direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, which resulted in an exchange of missile and drone attacks in April 2024. Restraint in the actions of Israel's allies represented by Washington and other Western countries during the Iran-Israeli confl ict and the mutual disinterest of Tehran and Tel Aviv in inciting large-scale hostilities are noted. The author believes that the level of confrontation between Iran and Israel could be signifi cantly reduced if the IDF military operation in the Gaza Strip were stopped and peace negotiations on a Middle East settlement were resumed. The article provides a comparative analysis of the military potentials of Iran and Israel and examines possible scenarios for further developments in the region. The author believes that Tehran has become the greatest benefi ciary of the latest aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. The process of recognition of the State of Israel, which had been outlined in previous years, was practically thwarted; Iran strengthened its authority as a fi ghter for a just solution to the Palestinian problem in the Arab and Muslim world, and noticeably weakened Israel’s position in the region and in the international arena. In conclusion, the author concludes that the Iran-Israeli confl ict represents one of the main threats to regional and international security. This is explained by a number of factors, the most important of which is the presence of nuclear missile weapons in Israel and a triad of means of delivering them to targets, as well as the fact that Iran is armed with ballistic and cruise missiles, long-range drones and can also create nuclear weapon. The Iran-Israeli confl ict presents an equation with many unknowns. The threshold of tension between these countries could be reduced by the cessation of Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip, the resumption of peace negotiations on resolving the Palestinian problem in various formats, and a return to the nuclear deal with Iran (JCPOA) by Washington.
Keywords: Iran | Israel | conflict | Palestinian problem | Gaza Strip | armed conflict | hybrid war | peace settlement | Islam, Arab countries |
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