Maslennikov Alexander
Global Competition in the Pacific Asia Natural Gas Market
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ISSN 0131-7652

DOI 10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2021-9-21-37

The paper analyses the development of international liquefied natural gas markets in Asia Pacific for the period up to 2040 in four main aspects. Firstly, it examines the outlook of LNG demand growth in Asia Pacific and shows that although Asia Pacific will remain the main driver of global LNG consumption its growth rate is highly uncertain. Secondly, it estimates the long-term excess of LNG supply and shows that the aggregate capacity of liquefication terminals around the world currently under construction would be enough to match even the optimistic LNG demand growth forecasts up to 2040. Hence the competition among LNG exporters will inevitably intensify. Thirdly, it is argued that the global LNG market developments during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 are likely to prevent JKM price index from advancing as a common price reference in long-term LNG supply contracts in Asia Pacific. That could also stimulate the potential replacement of oil indexation in those contracts with indexation to European spot natural gas price TTF. Finally, the paper concludes that both of those potential developments suit the interests of Russian LNG exporters.


Keywords: LNG | natural gas | price formation | JKM | TTF | oil indexation | long-term contracts | gas export | APR |

Russian Science Citation Index



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