Varnavskii Vladimir
Growth Factors and Trends of Global Trade
Publication Type:


ISSN 2713-170X

DOI: 10.20542/afij-2020-1-51-62

The article is devoted to an in-depth study of the modern factors and trends of the world trade. It provides an overview of the economic literature and development of theoretical frameworks of global trade factors. Three main factors are identified in the article, namely: (1) globalization, (2) computer revolution and ICT-technologies, and (3) China’s opening to the world. The tendencies of the international trade in the past three decades are analyzed. The main trends of world economy and trade are discussed. There is particular emphasis on the world trade reduction causes in 2015 and 2016. Special attention is paid to the changes in the US and China bilateral trade. GDP growth slowed down in both the US and China during three years of their trade war. Nevertheless, despite this relative decline the United States and China remain the world’s largest importers and exporters of goods and services and the main trading partners. USA accounts for 8.8 percent of global goods exports in 2018 (second place after China with 13.1 percent) and 13.5 percent of global imports (first place; China is 11.0 percent). The author’s conclusion is as follows: the proportion between the world trade and global GDP that has been established by now should be considered as normal and optimal in terms of the global reproduction system’s functioning.


Keywords: world trade | global GDP | growth factors | world economy | globalization | computer revolution | information and communication technologies (ICT) | USA | China |

Russian Science Citation Index



OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC

Varnavskii Vladimir
Инновационный рост мировой экономики: основные тренды и перспективы [Текст] / В.Г. Варнавский // Друкеровский вестник. – 2017. – № 1. – С. 5-15.

Varnavskii Vladimir
Мировая торговля продукцией отраслей высоких технологий: динамика и перспективы [Текст] / В. Г. Варнавский // Друкеровский вестник. – 2018. – № 4. – С. 238-249. DOI: 10.17213/2312-6469-2018-4-217-228.

Varnavskii Vladimir
Digital technologies and the growing of world economy

Mamedyarov Zaur
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy and Innovative Development

Obolenskiy Vladimir
Глобальный регионализм: Россия перед выбором [Текст] / В.П. Оболенский // Мир перемен. – 2016. – № 1. – С. 112–126.

Varnavskii Vladimir
Процессы в мировой экономике: основные тренды и перспективы [Текст] / В.Г. Варнавский // Друкеровский вестник. – 2017. – № 4. – С. 5-15.

Мировая экономика: тенденции 90-х годов. Ответственный редактор чл.-корр. РАН Королев И.С. М., Наука, 1999, 19 п.л.

Adno Yuri
World Metallurgy 2020: Consequences and lessons of the pandemic

El’yanov Anatoly
Об основном локомотиве экономики [Текст] / А.Я. Эльянов // Общество и экономика. – 2014. – № 9. – С. 40 – 53.

Bragina Elena
This controversial world economy - what is going to happen?

Gemueva K.A., Salitskii Alexander, Shakhmatov A.
Индия и Китай в мировой экономике, энергетике и политике. М.: Ин-т стран Востока, 2015, 148 с.

Adno Yuri
Мировая экономика переходит к росту [Текст] / Ю. Л. Адно // Металлы Евразии. – 2018. – № 2. – С. 6-10.

Соболевская А.А., Popov A.
Мировой кризис и «интеллект-революция» / А.А. Соболевская, А.К. Попов // Философия хозяйства. – 2012. – № 2. – С. 127–133.

El’yanov Anatoly
Экономическая дифференциация мира [Текст] / А.Я. Эльянов // Общество и экономика. – 2013. – № 6. – С. 25-46.

Portansky Alexey
Мегарегиональный вызов [Текст] / А.П. Портанский // Россия в глобальной политике. – 2016. – Т. 14. – № 1. – С. 126 – 136.

Dynkin Alexander , Telegina Elena
Глобализация и мировой порядок в новых реалиях постковидного мира // Вестник Российской академии наук. 2021. Т. 91, № 7. С. 642-647. DOI 10.31857/S0869587321070033.

Portansky Alexey , Sudakova Yu., Larionov A.
Assumptions of the Global Economic Crisis and Its Inception in the Spring of 2020 Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic // International Organisations Research Journal.. Vol. 15, N 2, pp. 191–212

Dynkin Alexander
Мировая экономика до 2020 года: прогнозы и реалии : тез. докл. на XVIII ежегод. собр. членов МСЭ (США: Майами, 3-15 янв.2009 г. / А.А. Дынкин // Научные труды вольного экономического общества России. – 2009. – Т. 108. – С. 13-46.

Kondrat’ev Vladimir
Longterm trends in the world economy

Salitskii Alexander, Tatsii V.
World Economy: a Time of Reappraising? / Salitskiy A.I., Tatciy V.V.
Related publications


Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







First news
Institute News
10/06/2022

The next issue of the journal ME & MO (No. 6, 2022), which opens with a panoramic article by V. Mikheev and S. Lukonin, has been published. The authors dedicated it to China on the eve of the 20th CPC Congress. In the economic block of the magazine special attention is paid to digital currencies.

more...

09/06/2022

An article by Marina Klinova «The State and Energy Security in the World and Europe as a Public Good» was published in the June issue of the journal «Voprosy Ekonomiki» ("Economic Issues") under the heading "International Economics" (in Russian).

more...

Recently Published