Potapov Maxim
Economic Development in East Asia: Current Situation and Prospects
Publication Type:

ISSN 1026-8804

DOI 10.24411/1026-8804-2020-10037

The paper analyzes the economic development of East Asian countries in 2014-2019 with a forecast for 2020 in the context of factors of economic growth and foreign trade. The paper is based on statistical data from international economic organizations. It is noted that in general the prospects for the East Asian region are quite stable. Domestic demand balances the negative impact of reduced external export demand due to trade restrictions. Despite continued dependence on foreign trade, many East Asian countries have reached a stage of development where domestic private consumption has become a strong driver of growth. China continues to be the engine of the world economy as the world’s largest producer and consumer of goods. In the context of expanding protectionism and import restrictions on the goods made in China, the leading role of domestic investment and growing consumer demand in maintaining economic growth allows China to overcome the crisis in the world economy without much loss. It is concluded that trade contradictions as well as uncertainty about the future of the multilateral trading system will give a new impetus to bilateral and multilateral integration initiatives. The countries of the East Asian region will be increasingly inclined to conclude bilateral and regional trade agreements for further development. It is regional economic integration that can become an additional engine for the development of East Asia. A key factor for its success is the presence of large emerging markets in the region. The emergence of a large middle class with growing incomes and purchasing power in East Asian countries leads to a growing demand for a wide range of consumer and industrial goods and services. This increasing demand generates rapid growth in intraregional trade and provides the basis for further deepening regional economic integration.

Keywords: foreign trade | domestic consumption | East Asia | investment demand | Chinese economy | world economy | non­tariff measures | consumer demand | protectionism | trade war | economic integration | economic growth |

Russian Science Citation Index


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