Russia has failed to become an “island of stability” amid the world economic turbulence. The Russian government’s rescue package has been the world’s largest in proportion to GDP. This is due to the deficiencies of Russia’s major political and socio-economic institutions that have long hindered Russia’s trade and financial exchanges with the outside world.
The Western nations are interested in engaging Russia economically to make it a robust ally in the face of global forces reshuffle and, in particular, the rapid rise of China. Russia and its corporations must not mistake competitive pressures from Western businesses for attempts at leaving Russia in the “waiting room” for good. Strong competition is an inherent feature of any sound economic system. Full participation in such system could bring Russia significant benefits.
Russia’s exports to both developed and largest developing economies, such as China and India, are dominated by raw materials while the bulk of industrial goods and technologies are imported into Russia. However, the Russian and biggest Asian economies are complementary in a number of ways. Russia is poised to suffer from a lack of labor force that can be provided by China. Russian fundamental research capacities in physics and engineering could be productively merged with the Indian applied scholarship and industrial technology.
Russia’s economic interaction with its neighbors is an example of failed expectations. Despite talk and promises by political leaders since the mid-1990s, none of the CIS countries have established full-fledged free-trade zones and customs unions with Russia. Even Russia’s closest political ally Belarus has often resorted to both tariff and non-tariff restrictions in its trade with Russia. The plan to complete a customs union with participation of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus by 2010 appears unrealistic given the earlier record of similar projects.