Contemporary global economic crisis: Some conclusions for Russia and BRICS (taking into account Kondratieff long waves) // BRICS Journal of Economics : electronic journal. 2020. Vol. 1, Issue 2. P. 25-40. DOI 10.38050/2712-7508-2020-8. URL: https://www.brics-econ.org/archive/2020.Vol.1.No.2/2/ (accessed date: 14.09.2020).
DOI 10.38050/2712-7508-2020-8
The article is devoted to the origins of contemporary economic crises (2008–2020). The author suggests a relatively novel approach to the study and forecasting of the economic life of the BRICS countries and other regions within the framework of the modern Kondratieff long waves hypothesis. The author recalls that in the mid-twenties, after analyzing the results of a sufficiently deep crisis in 1920–1921, Kondratieff drew a conclusion that even more destructive perturbations in the world economy were approaching (having thus predicted the Great Depression of 1930s). In particular, Kondratieff wrote about the downswing phase of a long wave – a long turbulent period of economic instability (a period of deep economic crises). According to some Russian economists, today’s preservation of the downswing phase was correctly predicted in the framework of modern modifications of Kondratieff’s theory. Based on the hypothesis of long waves, the author predicted the global economic crisis of 2008–2010 in2006, and in the summer of 2014, he predicted many turbulent years for Russia (in particular, economic crises). The author warned of a possible aggravation of the global situation in early 2019, and such aggravation happened in 2020. Taking into account Kondratieff long waves, some new risks for the BRICS countries are analyzed in this article. In particular, the author argues that by the end of 2020, Russia’s real GDP may considerably shrink. In 2020, Russia seems to be able to take into account and use the previous experience of other BRICS countries which largely succeeded in mitigating external shocks in 2009 (for example, the experience of China and India).
Keywords: BRICS countries | economic cycles and crises | Kondratieff long waves |
OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC
Tatuzov Viktor
Анализ притока ПИИ в экономику России с учетом ряда глобальных тенденций // Экономические стратегии. 2021. Т. 23, № 5 (179). С. 96-101. DOI 10.33917/es-5.179.2021.96-101.
Semenenko Irina
Evolutionary cycles and problems of forecasting political changes. – Polis. Political Studies. 2015. No 1. P. 173-178.
Khoros Vladimir
На пути к большой концепции прогнозирования [Текст] / В.Г. Хорос // Экономические стратегии. – 2015. – Т. 17. – № 4 (130). – С. 126 – 133. – Рец. на кн.: Историческое прогнозирование в XXI веке: циклы Кондратьева, эволюционные циклы и перспективы мирового развития. /В.И. Пантин, В.В. Лапкин. – М.: Феникс+ , 2014. – 456 с.
Varnavskii Vladimir , Dunaev B., Kirilenko L.
Cycles in the Russian Economy
Tatuzov Viktor
Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Policy (Based on Examples of Certain Countries)
Tatuzov Viktor
Динамика ПИИ: анализ и прогнозирование // Научные труды Вольного экономического общества России. 2023. Т. 240, № 2. С. 66-86. DOI 10.38197/2072-2060-2023-240-2-66-86.
Tatuzov Viktor
Прямые иностранные инвестиции и западноевропейская интеграция: некоторые циклические факторы // Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика. 2021. № 3. С. 3-19.
Lapkin Vladimir , Pantin Vladimir
Историческое прогнозирование в XXI веке: Циклы Кондратьева, эволюционные циклы и перспективы мирового развития. Дубна: Феникс+, 2014, 456 с.
Kosolapov Nikolay
Прообраз посткапитализма. БРИКС как международное политическое пространство [Текст] / Н.А. Косолапов // Россия в глобальной политике. – 2013. – Т. 1. – № 1. – С. 91 – 106.
Zhukova Tatiana
The Second Wave of Pension Reforms (2009–2019): Transformation of Pension Systems Projection
Salitskii Alexander, Виноградов А.
БРИКС: на пути к партнерству [Текст] / А. О. Виноградов, А. И. Салицкий // Перспективы. Электронный журнал. – 2018. – № 1(13). – С. 21-26.
Volodin Andrey
Россия в "свободной геометрии" мировой политики. [Текст] / А.Г. Володин // Геополитический журнал. – 2015. – № 4(11). – С. 6 – 14.
Pantin Vladimir
Циклы реформ – контрреформ в России и их связь с циклами мирового развития / В.И. Пантин // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2011. – № 6. – С. 22–31.
Trubnikov Vyacheslav
Russian-Indian economic integration under the BRICS. Interview with Vyacheslav Trubnikov (Moscow) for the problems of Oriental Studies Journal readers
Labetskaya Ekaterina
Арктический вектор евразийского партнерства // Наш дом – Евразия. Доклады и материалы Международной конференции. М.: Международный институт Питирима Сорокина – Николая Кондратьева, 2018. – сс. 69-80.
Pantin Vladimir
Cycles and Waves of the Global History: Globalization in Terms of History. Moscow, Novyi Vek Publishers, 2003.
Modern tendencies and prospects of development of military-technical cooperation of Russia with partners in the BRICS group (on the example of military aviation equipment)
Trofimova Irina
BRICS and emerging countries on the way toward the information society: development of ICT and digital inequality / Trophimova I.
Zhukova Tatiana
Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008
Afontsev Sergey
Доминирование доллара: есть ли альтернативы? [Текст] / С.А. Афонцев // Россия в глобальной политике. – 2014. – Т. 12. – № 4. – С. 120–129.
Related publications
No comments