, Nikolaenko S.A.
Business cycle dating: international experience and possibilities for its application in Russia / Belyanova E., Nikolaenko S.
Publication Type:

 On the basis of international experience in cyclic analysis the paper demonstrates the crucial importance of officially recognized business cycles dating for their monitoring and forecasting as well as for the theoretical research. The authors review main methods of business cycle dating from the point of view of their application to specific Russia’s circumstances, such as: short history of market economy and peculiarities of statistical data collection and their presentation. The key motivation for authors was not only to propose a set of Russian business cycle turning points but also to emphasize a special significance of ensuring that a dating procedure is valid and transparent. Furthermore, the authors raise an issue of the need to establish an institution for fixing turning points of the cycle in Russia that is similar to the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (USA) and staffed with competent pool of experts whose opinion would be accepted by the government, academic circles, business community and public.

Keywords: business cycles | turning points | economic crisis |

Russian Science Citation Index


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