Ivanov Stanislav
Ближний Восток остается в состоянии военно-политической турбулентности // Дипломатическая служба. 2025. № 1 (118). С. 7-15. DOI 10.33920/vne-01-2501-01.
Publication Type:
Rubric:


ISSN 2075–4140

The article analyzes the crisis situation in the Middle East that has developed by the end of 2024. The author believes that the main destabilizing factors in the situation in this region are the unresolved Palestinian problem and the intervention of external forces in the Israeli-Palestinian confl ict. A special feature of the new outbreak of violence in the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon and, in general, the region was the active participation in the war with Israel of non-state actors in the person of radical Islamist groups: Hamas, Islamic Jihad (banned in Russia), Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and the like. Tehran views these groups as an "axis of resistance" to Israel and provides them with fi nancial, material and military assistance. Washington, in turn, is increasing military assistance to Israel. A signifi cant event in the Middle East was the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and, as a result, a change in the entire confi guration of military and political forces in the region. Against the backdrop of Iran's weakening position in the Arab East, the positions of Turkey and the Persian Gulf monarchies have noticeably strengthened there. The United States and Israel indirectly benefi ted from the change of power in Damascus. The author considers several scenarios and options for further developments in the Middle East. In his opinion, much will depend on the ability of the Israeli authorities to peacefully resolve the Palestinian problem and on the level of confrontation between the two regional powers: Iran and Israel. The direct exchanges of missile and bomb strikes and drone strikes between these countries that took place in 2024 may continue in 2025, and massive strikes by the Israeli Air Force, with US support, on nuclear, missile and other strategically important Iranian facilities are not excluded. At the same time, information about the creation of nuclear weapons in Iran may become a "red line" for Tel Aviv and Washington. The author believes that the task of the world community and, above all, the UN structures, is to prevent such a development of events, which is fraught with a nuclear catastrophe.


Keywords: Middle East | Persian Gulf | Mediterranean Sea | radical Islamist groups | Israel | Hamas | Iran | Syria | Lebanon | Hezbollah | Palestinian problem | armed conflicts |

Russian Science Citation Index



OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC

Surkov Nikolay
Разрядка в Заливе и курс на Евразию. Ближний Восток превращается в один из новых мировых полюсов // Свободная мысль. 2024. № 1 (1703). С. 85-96. DOI 10.24412/0869-4435-2024-1-85-96.

Ivanov Stanislav
Washington knocks together the pro-American block in the Middle East

Ivanov Stanislav
Вмешательство иностранных государств в сирийский конфликт [Текст] / С.М. Иванов // Зарубежное военное обозрение. – 2018. – № 7 (856). – С. 17-23

Ivanov Stanislav
Израиль и Палестина. ЦАХАЛ и ХАМАС // Новый оборонный заказ. Стратегии. 2024. № 1(84). С. 24-31.

Ближний Восток: политика и идентичность / под ред. И.Д. Звягельской; ИМЭМО РАН. – М.: Изд-во «Аспект-Пресс», 2020. – 336 с.

Frolov Alexander
Basic points of the US middle east policy

Ivanov Stanislav
Unresolvation of the Palestine problem — the main threat to regional security

Bogacheva Anastasia, Ibragimov Ibragim, Kozhanov Nikolay, Lazovskii Stanislav, Svistunova Irina, Surkov Nikolay, Samarskaia Liudmila
The Middle East in the Second Wave of the Coronavirus Crisis. Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law. 2020;13(5):158–180. https://doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2020-13-5-10.

Ivanov Stanislav
Ближний Восток – угроза большого взрыва // Новый оборонный заказ. Стратегии. 2024. № 6(89). С. 20-31.

The Middle East: Politics and Identity

Ivanov Stanislav
Role and importance of foreign forces in the Syrian crisis

Ivanov Stanislav
Ближний Восток - угроза большого взрыва // Новый оборонный заказ. Стратегии. 2024. № 6 (89). С. 20-31.

Zvyagelskaya Irina
США, Израиль и новая реальность на Ближнем Востоке // Разведчик. 2025. № 1(10). С. 18-23.

Ivanov Stanislav
Противостояние Саудовской Аравии и Ирана как фактор нестабильности в зоне Персидского залива // Зарубежное военное обозрение. 2020. № 9. С. 17-20.

Zvyagelskaya Irina
Религиозные националисты в Палестине и в Израиле: возвращение на авансцену? // Полис. Политические исследования. 2024. № 6. С. 91-103. DOI 10.17976/jpps/2024.06.07.

Zvyagelskaya Irina, Bogacheva Anastasia, Davydov Alexey, Ibragimov Ibragim, Lazovskii Stanislav, Samarskaia Liudmila, Svistunova Irina, Surkov Nikolay, Tyukaeva Tatiana
Российская политика на Ближнем Востоке: перспективы и вызовы // Свободная мысль. 2021. № 6 (1690). С. 71-85. DOI 10.24412/0869-4435-2021-61690-71-86.

Frolov Alexander
Ближний Восток: традиции и трансформации [Текст] / А.В. Фролов, Р. Мустафин // Международная жизнь. – 2014. – № 8. – С. 45 – 62.

Avatkov Vladimir, Syrtmach M.M., Yakimova D.A., Krylov D.S.
The Syrian refugee crisis. The problem of forced displacement in the Middle East

Ivanov Stanislav
Осторожно! Ближний Восток // Новый оборонный заказ. Стратегии. 2024. № 3 (84). С. 31-39.

Ivanov Stanislav
Вооруженные силы Ирана // Зарубежное военное обозрение. 2021. № 4. С. 10-17.
Related publications


Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







First news
Institute News
12/08/2026

The 2nd issue for 2026 of the journal “Russia and the New States of Eurasia” has been published. Traditionally, the authors pay great attention to the countries located in the European part of the post-Soviet space.

more...

07/08/2026

The next issue of the MEMO Journal (No. 8, 2026) is published. Much attention in the issue is paid to topical issues of the global economy. Articles are published on the state and prospects of global tax reform; on the strategic foresight of TNCs in the context of global uncertainty; on some features of economic sanctions regimes.

more...

Recently Published