Ivanov Stanislav
Ближний Восток остается в состоянии военно-политической турбулентности // Дипломатическая служба. 2025. Т. 21, № 1 (118). С. 7-15. DOI 10.33920 / vne-01-2501-01.
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ISSN 2075–4140

The article analyzes the crisis situation in the Middle East that has developed by the end of 2024. The author believes that the main destabilizing factors in the situation in this region are the unresolved Palestinian problem and the intervention of external forces in the Israeli-Palestinian confl ict. A special feature of the new outbreak of violence in the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon and, in general, the region was the active participation in the war with Israel of non-state actors in the person of radical Islamist groups: Hamas, Islamic Jihad (banned in Russia), Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and the like. Tehran views these groups as an "axis of resistance" to Israel and provides them with fi nancial, material and military assistance. Washington, in turn, is increasing military assistance to Israel. A signifi cant event in the Middle East was the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and, as a result, a change in the entire confi guration of military and political forces in the region. Against the backdrop of Iran's weakening position in the Arab East, the positions of Turkey and the Persian Gulf monarchies have noticeably strengthened there. The United States and Israel indirectly benefi ted from the change of power in Damascus. The author considers several scenarios and options for further developments in the Middle East. In his opinion, much will depend on the ability of the Israeli authorities to peacefully resolve the Palestinian problem and on the level of confrontation between the two regional powers: Iran and Israel. The direct exchanges of missile and bomb strikes and drone strikes between these countries that took place in 2024 may continue in 2025, and massive strikes by the Israeli Air Force, with US support, on nuclear, missile and other strategically important Iranian facilities are not excluded. At the same time, information about the creation of nuclear weapons in Iran may become a "red line" for Tel Aviv and Washington. The author believes that the task of the world community and, above all, the UN structures, is to prevent such a development of events, which is fraught with a nuclear catastrophe.


Keywords: Middle East | Persian Gulf | Mediterranean Sea | radical Islamist groups | Israel | Hamas | Iran | Syria | Lebanon | Hezbollah | Palestinian problem | armed conflicts |



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