Meeting of the Scientific and Theoretical Seminar of the Center for Comparative Socio-Economic and Political Studies


On March 6, 2023 the regular meeting of the Scientific and Theoretical Seminar of the Center for Comparative Socio-Economic and Political Studies was held. Head of Department for Comparative Political Studies of the Center for Comparative Socio-Economic and Political Studies of IMEMO, Dr. of Sciences (Philosophy) Vladimir Pantin delivered his report “Global Shocks: Causes, Dynamics and Impact on Socio-Political Divisions”.

The report considered a wide range of issues related to the non-linear, wave-like nature of socio-political development, the need to take into account the turning points in this development, as well as the global socio-political upheavals of the late 2010s – early 2020s, which strengthen the political divisions. Among these long-term shocks were the debt crisis, the migration crisis, the welfare state crisis, the crisis of medicine associated with the global COVID-19 epidemic, the environmental crisis, the "energy" crisis, the split of elites and the split of society in many countries around the world.

The report made a strong argument that it was not the special military operation conducted by Russia since February 24, 2022 that caused the listed global crisis shocks, but the shocks themselves were an important cause of the conflict in Ukraine, since the global crisis shocks took place long before the special military operation started. Based on the analysis of the wave-like dynamics of political development it was predicted that throughout the 2020s there will be global social and geopolitical shifts, which will eventually lead to a change in the balance of power between the countries of the West and the East, to a change in the nature of world leadership and to the formation of a new polycentric world order with a hierarchy of different centers of power. At the same time, one of the important turning points in domestic and international politics, according to the speaker, will be 2024-2025, when elections will be held in Russia, the United States and a number of other countries and the accumulated internal political contradictions will force a change in the policy vector.

In the question and answer session and discussion held after the presentation took part Academician Natalya Ivanova, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Irina Semenenko, Cand. of Science (Chemistry) Vladimir Lapkin, Dr. of Science (History) Kirill Kholodkovskiy, Dr. of Science (Economics) Irina Tsapenko, Cand. of Science (Economics) Elena Sadovaya, Junior Research Fellow Tatiana Khaynatskaya, Cand. of Science (Politics) Maxim Sigachev, Cand. of Science (Politics) Alexey Zenkov, Cand. of Science (Pedagogics) Ilya Udovenko, Cand. of Science (Philosophy) Alexander Kamkin.

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